--- title: "October 2026 was the warmest on record: Copernicus records +1.75°C anomaly" description: "October 2026 became the warmest on record with an anomaly of +1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, while the ocean and El Niño set records. 2026 is likely to rank in the top 2 warmest years." date: 2026-11-06T13:49:10.537Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/october-2026-warmest-on-record-copernicus tags: [climate, global-warming, copernicus, el-nino, temperature-record, ecmwf] author: "Alexander Buran" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # October 2026 was the warmest on record: Copernicus records +1.75°C anomaly ![Researcher in front of a monitor displaying a climate map of Pacific ocean temperatures](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/06/oktyabr-2026-samyy-teplyy-v-istorii-nablyudeni/oktyabr-2026-samyy-teplyy-v-istorii-nablyudeni-1.webp) ## Key Points - October 2026 is the warmest for this month on record, with a +1.75°C anomaly above pre-industrial levels. - This is the third consecutive month with an anomaly above 1.5°C; 2026 is likely to become the second warmest year on history. - Ocean surface temperature (20.95°C) and the El Niño region anomaly (3.21°C) set records. - In Europe, October was the second warmest; the east experienced low river discharge, while the west faced floods. October 2026 entered climate statistics as the warmest month for this period in the entire history of global observations. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global average surface air temperature in October exceeded the pre-industrial level of 1850–1900 by 1.75 degrees Celsius. This is the third consecutive month in which the global temperature anomaly has remained above the 1.5-degree mark—a threshold previously considered a key limit of the Paris Climate Agreement. ### 2026 contends for second place in history C3S experts predict that 2026 is likely to rank as the second warmest year on record. The probability of it matching or surpassing the record year of 2024 is estimated at around 20%. In addition, the average global temperature for the four-year period 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees, providing important statistical confirmation of a sustained warming trend rather than an isolated spike. ### Ocean and El Niño: records in the Pacific Ocean In October, the sea surface temperature outside polar regions averaged 20.95 degrees—the highest figure for this month in recorded history, surpassing the previous record of 2023. Particularly high values were recorded in the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño phenomenon was intensifying: in the Niño 3.4 region, the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly reached 3.21 degrees, setting a historical high that exceeded the peak values of previous powerful El Niño episodes. According to ECMWF climate lead Samantha Burgess, El Niño is further heating a climate that has already experienced significant human-induced warming. ### Europe: heat in the east, floods in the west In Europe, October 2026 was the second warmest on record, with the largest temperature excesses recorded in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. At the same time, the continent faced contrasting hydrological events: Central and Eastern Europe maintained exceptionally low river discharge levels on the Rhine, Danube, and Vistula, while heavy rainfall and floods swept across the UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Turkey. Copernicus emphasizes that the combination of record air and ocean temperatures points to a prolonged period of global warming. ### What this means for Ukraine Against the backdrop of global trends, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute forecasts that the winter of 2026 in Ukraine will be 1–2 degrees warmer than normal. Precipitation may be 20–40% higher, but due to positive temperatures, snow will melt quickly and fail to form a stable cover. Notably, certain publications, citing the same Copernicus data, cite slightly different figures for the October anomaly (ranging from 0.9 to 1.5 degrees), whereas the primary C3S report relied on by RBC-Ukraine records the value at 1.75 degrees. ## Accounts differ ### Magnitude of the October 2026 global temperature anomaly - **RBC-Ukraine citing Copernicus C3S:** The global average surface air temperature in October exceeded the pre-industrial level by 1.75 degrees. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/zhovten-stav-nayteplishim-istoriyi-sposterezhen-1793972343.html)) - **Gazeta.press:** The average global temperature in October exceeded the pre-industrial period by 1.5 degrees. ([gazeta.press](https://www.gazeta.press/social/news/2026/11/06/29686633.shtml)) - **Virtualbrest.ru:** The average global near-surface temperature was 15.35°C, which is 0.9 degrees above normal. ([virtualbrest.ru](https://virtualbrest.ru/news196693.php)) *Where they agree:* All sources acknowledge that October 2026 was the warmest for this month in recorded history. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Октябрь стал самым теплым в истории наблюдений: что говорят климатологи обо всем 2026 году](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/zhovten-stav-nayteplishim-istoriyi-sposterezhen-1793972343.html) - Primary source: +1.75°C anomaly, third month >1.5°C, forecast for 2026, ocean and El Niño records, data on Europe and Ukraine. - [Октябрь в Европе стал самым теплым за всю историю](https://www.gazeta.press/social/news/2026/11/06/29686633.shtml) - Confirms record October according to Copernicus data, but indicates a 1.5°C anomaly (discrepancy with 1.75°C in the primary source). - [Октябрь 2026 года стал самым теплым в истории наблюдений в мировом масштабе](https://virtualbrest.ru/news196693.php) - Confirms record October, but cites an absolute value of 15.35°C and a 0.9°C anomaly (discrepancy with the primary source). - [Синоптик назвал московский октябрь 2026 вторым самым теплым в истории](https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6ae844496ceccb58de039b46) - Local context: October 2026 in Moscow is the second warmest; consistent with the general warming trend. ## FAQ ### How much warmer was October 2026? According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global average surface air temperature in October 2026 exceeded the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level by 1.75 degrees Celsius. ### What is forecasted for 2026 overall? C3S expects 2026 to likely rank as the second warmest year on record; the probability of matching or surpassing the record-breaking year 2024 is estimated at about 20%. ### What records did the ocean set? The ocean surface temperature outside polar regions in October was 20.95°C—a maximum for this month, and the anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached 3.21°C, marking a historical high for El Niño. ### How did October 2026 affect Europe? October was the second warmest on record for Europe, with the greatest excesses in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia; meanwhile, the east saw low river runoff, and the west experienced heavy rains and floods.