---
title: "Oil Stalls at $77.5: How the Collapse of the Iran Deal Changed the Market Rules"
description: "Brent oil stabilized at $77.5 after a sharp spike caused by the collapse of the truce with Iran. 🛢️ The US and Tehran are blaming each other for violating agreements, and the Strait of Hormuz has once again become a risk zone. The market is trying to adapt to the new reality, but the safety margin is currently saving it from panic. 📉🌍"
date: 2026-07-09T14:33:14.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/oil-stalls-at-77-5-how-the-collapse-of-the-iran-deal-changed-the-market-rules
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Oil Stalls at $77.5: How the Collapse of the Iran Deal Changed the Market Rules

![Oil rigs against a city backdrop: Iran deal collapse locks oil price at $77.5](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/09/neft-stabilizirovalas-77-5-iz-za-sryva-sdelki-s-iranom/neft-stabilizirovalas-77-5-iz-za-sryva-sdelki-s-iranom-1.webp)

Global commodity markets have shifted into a wait-and-see mode. Following a sharp price spike triggered by a geopolitical shock, Brent crude benchmarks have stabilized at $77.5 per barrel. This comes amidst the White House's official acknowledgment that the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf has effectively ceased to exist.

### From Hopes to Reality: Crisis Timeline

Market dynamics in mid-summer 2026 became a vivid example of how quickly investor sentiment can shift under the pressure of news. In June, the situation seemed idyllic for logistics: on June 15, US President Donald Trump announced the signing of a memorandum with Iran and the lifting of the naval blockade. This provided a powerful impetus for reducing speculative pressure.

Just three days later, on June 18, the agreement was formalized at the G7 summit. The parties agreed on a 60-day truce intended to guarantee freedom of navigation for commercial fleets. However, the illusions were short-lived. By late June and early July, isolated incidents involving drones and boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began to be recorded in the region.

The climax was the US administration's statement on July 8: the agreements are no longer working. The market reacted instantly — prices surged by 5–7%, but by July 9, Thursday, the Brent price corrected to $77.5, showing a technical decline of $0.5.

### Why Didn't Prices Soar into Space?

Despite the escalation, oil prices remain below the peak levels of the spring period. Analysts attribute this to a "safety margin" that formed during the period of the short-term truce. International operators managed to diversify supply routes, and commercial stocks of distillates in the US partially compensated for the local supply deficit.

Furthermore, the OPEC+ strategy remains unchanged: the cartel maintains the planned schedule for the gradual restoration of production from August 2026, unwilling to succumb to panic and artificially restrain supply.

### New Reality: Military Risks and Logistics

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the world's liquid hydrocarbon consumption passes, has entered a phase of long-term tension. According to Axios, relevant US agencies, including US Central Command (USCENTCOM), have moved to planning response measures that allow for a multi-week cycle of targeted strikes.

The White House justifies the hardening of its position by the need to guarantee international law on the transit passage of ships in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In response, the Iranian side blames Washington for the collapse of the memorandum, pointing to the incomplete fulfillment of obligations to lift financial restrictions.

Logistics companies have already begun redirecting part of the tanker traffic through an alternative Omani route, attempting to minimize risks. However, the regulatory framework of the ICE and NYMEX exchanges, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), classifies any force majeure in this region as a systemic risk, which could lead to an automatic change in margin requirements for traders.