---
title: "«Oreshnik» and Russia Day: Why the Kremlin Chose June 12 to Demonstrate Power"
description: "🚨 Ukraine has warned of a possible launch of the «Oreshnik» missile on Russia Day. ISW experts believe: this is an attempt by the Kremlin to compensate for image defeats in 2026 and demonstrate power after the Victory Day Parade scandal. The US has already passed data on the threat. 🇺🇦🇷🇺"
date: 2026-06-13T05:52:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/oreshnik-and-russia-day-why-the-kremlin-chose-june-12-to-demonstrate-power
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# «Oreshnik» and Russia Day: Why the Kremlin Chose June 12 to Demonstrate Power

![Mobile launcher of the 'Oreshnik' missile at Russia Day parade on June 12 — Kremlin’s display of military power](https://xab.info/media/2026/06/13/oreshnik-i-den-rossii-pochemu-kreml-vybral-12-iunya-dlya-demonstratsii-sily/oreshnik-i-den-rossii-pochemu-kreml-vybral-12-iunya-dlya-demonstratsii-sily-1.webp)

Tension hangs in the air. The Ukrainian Air Force has announced a «high probability» of a new launch of the Russian «Oreshnik» missile within the next 24 hours. The target of the strike could be Ukrainian territory, with the launch site reportedly being the Kapustin Yar range in the Astrakhan region. This is not the first such incident: at least three launches of this missile have been recorded, two of which occurred in 2026.

### The Kremlin's Logic: Image and Demonstration of Power

According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow's decision to launch again is dictated not only by military necessity but also by the Kremlin's deep internal logic. Experts point out that in 2026, Russia faced a series of serious image defeats. In particular, Ukraine's strike campaign against St. Petersburg and other Russian cities has called into question Vladimir Putin's ability to reliably protect his own territory.

The culmination of the crisis of confidence in the authorities was the scandal surrounding the Victory Day Parade on May 9. According to sources, the Russian president had to ask Volodymyr Zelenskyy for permission to hold the event in Moscow, which became a public sign of the regime's vulnerability.

### Why June 12?

Against this backdrop, the Kremlin has sharply intensified its rhetoric and long-range strikes against Ukraine. According to ISW, a possible launch of «Oreshnik» is part of a strategy to demonstrate power immediately after the celebration of Russia Day. The choice of date is not accidental: the authorities are trying to compensate for the feeling of weakness that arose after a series of failures.

At a meeting with servicemen, Vladimir Putin spoke actively about the technological progress of the army, praising FPV drones, electronic warfare systems, and the implementation of artificial intelligence. However, he was forced to admit that advances on the front are happening «not as fast as we would like». At the same time, his speech did not mention a single word about Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

### International Reaction

The US has passed information to Ukraine about the threat of a strike by «Oreshnik», reports RBC-Ukraine citing a source in the Ukrainian authorities. There has been no official confirmation from Washington at this time. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated Russians on Russia Day, stating Washington's commitment to a «peaceful resolution» of the conflict.

Thus, behind the threat of launching the missile lies not just a military operation, but an attempt by the Kremlin to restore its lost image of strength and control — both within the country and on the international stage.