---
title: "«Oreshnik» Enters Mass Production: How the Production Rates of Russian MRBMs Are Changing"
description: "Has the RF started small-scale production of the «Oreshnik» MRBM? 🚀 The shortening of intervals between strikes on Ukraine indicates the launch of a production line, but the aggressor's actual missile reserve remains minimal — only 3-4 units. 🇺🇦🛡️"
date: 2026-05-26T20:33:31.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/oreshnik-enters-mass-production-russian-mrbm-rates
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# «Oreshnik» Enters Mass Production: How the Production Rates of Russian MRBMs Are Changing

![RS-26 «Rubezh» («Oreshnik») medium-range ballistic missile on a transporter erector launcher](https://xab.info/media/2026/05/27/oreshnik-vstal-na-potok-tempy-proizvodstva-raket/brsd-oreshnik-na-transportno-pustkovoy-mashine.webp)

The Russian Federation has likely transitioned to small-scale production of the RS-26 «Rubezh» medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), known in the Ukrainian information space as «Oreshnik». Despite the launch of the production line, the actual stockpiles of this dangerous weapon in the aggressor's arsenal remain critically low.

A key indicator of the changing situation was the strike on Bila Tserkva on the night of May 24. An analysis of the time intervals between attacks reveals an alarming trend: while 13.5 months passed between the first two uses of the missile against Dnipro and Lviv, the period until the third strike was reduced to 4.5 months. Such compression of timelines may indicate that the production of the missile has ceased to be a one-off experiment.

### Intelligence Data vs. Facts of Application

Experts from Defense Express, citing Ukrainian media and intelligence data, note that the current situation correlates with intelligence agency forecasts. As early as October 2025, during a briefing attended by the President of Ukraine and heads of intelligence agencies, information was voiced regarding the Kremlin's plans to release up to six «Oreshnik» MRBM units in 2026.

However, assessments of the actual availability of missiles have changed. In January 2026, the First Deputy Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleg Lugovsky, stated that Russia had no more than 3-4 such munitions in hand, but warned of plans to launch serial production at a rate of five units per year. By April 2026, data from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine indicated the presence of up to 10 missiles in reserve. Experts clarify that the phrase "up to" often means the upper limit of the estimate, not an exact figure.

### The Mathematics of Production

The change in rhetoric and the expansion of the range of estimates indicate that small-scale production has indeed begun. If the strike on Lviv used an experimental batch, the attack on May 24 could be the result of a production line that has already been launched.

According to current analyst calculations, the production rate is approximately one missile every 2-2.5 months. If the serial launch occurred in February-March 2026, then by May the occupiers managed to manufacture only one additional unit. Thus, the beginning-of-year assessment remains relevant: by the end of May, the Russian Federation's arsenal contains only 3-4 «Oreshnik» missiles.

Recall that on the night of May 24, Russia launched a massive combined attack, deploying drones and missiles of various basing. The main target was Kyiv, however, it was precisely on this evening that the RS-26 MRBM was used, launched from the «Kapustin Yar» test range.