---
title: "Reinforcement Illusion: Why New Mobilization in Russia Won't Save the Army, But Will Only Accelerate Its Collapse"
description: "New mobilization in Russia will not save the army, but will only exacerbate problems with training and logistics. ISW warns: personnel shortage and Ukrainian drones make mass conscription meaningless. 🇷🇺🚫📉"
date: 2026-05-28T08:34:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/reinforcement-illusion-why-new-mobilization-in-russia-wont-save-the-army
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Reinforcement Illusion: Why New Mobilization in Russia Won't Save the Army, But Will Only Accelerate Its Collapse

![Russian soldiers with backpacks and a Russian flag in front of a building, preparing for deployment to the front](https://xab.info/media/2026/05/28/novaya-mobilizatsiya-v-rf-ne-spasyet-armiyu-analiz-isw/russian-soldiers-mobilization-2025.webp)

The question of new mobilization in Russia has ceased to be theoretical and has turned into a real threat faced by the Ukrainian command. However, according to fresh data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin's plans for mass conscription may turn out to be not a salvation, but a catastrophe for the Russian army. Experts agree: forced conscription will not solve the personnel shortage, but will only exacerbate the systemic problems of the Russian Armed Forces.

### Personnel Shortage and Logistical Deadlock

ISW analysts point to a fundamental problem: the impact of the new wave of mobilization remains extremely doubtful. The Russian army is facing a shortage not only of enlisted personnel but also of qualified specialists. Losses on the front are colossal, but the issue of finding people for new types of weapons—operators of unmanned systems and air defense crews necessary to protect the rear from Ukrainian attacks—is even more acute.

The Kremlin's attempts to expand the recruitment base have reached the point of absurdity: students and women are being tried to be recruited into the army. Nevertheless, even increasing financial incentives for contractors does not yield the desired results. Recruitment rates are falling, forcing leadership to seek alternatives in the form of coercive measures.

### The Drone Factor: A Blow to Logistics

A key factor blocking the effectiveness of any mobilization plans is becoming Ukrainian drone reconnaissance and strike operations. Drones are actively hindering the transfer of personnel to the front line, disrupting supply chains, and making the holding of positions an extremely difficult task. Even if mobilized personnel can be conscripted, getting them to the front line in a combat-ready state is becoming increasingly difficult.

### Degradation of Elite Units

Particular attention deserves the situation with the elite unmanned systems center "Rubikon". It was its operators who ensured a number of tactical successes for the Russian army at the end of 2025. However, due to system overload and a lack of trained personnel, the effectiveness of this unit is rapidly declining. This is a vivid example of how scaling without quality training leads to the degradation of combat effectiveness.

### Political Risks and the Future of the War

ISW warns: the Kremlin is approaching a point of no return where personnel shortage will become the main threat to the continuation of the war. The Russian authorities are considering scenarios for new mobilization of up to 300,000 people if they decide to continue the war for another 1-2 years. The Office of the President of Ukraine also does not rule out that Vladimir Putin may announce general mobilization after the State Duma elections. But, as analysts show, simply increasing the number of troops without solving systemic problems will only accelerate the crisis of the Russian war machine.