---
title: "Russia Attempts to Capitalize on Diesel Agreement with US, But There Is a Catch, - ISW"
description: "Russian authorities are trying to reassure the population amid the diesel deal with the US, but ISW experts are confident that the Kremlin will sacrifice the domestic market for export and geopolitical bonuses."
date: 2026-10-14T05:50:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/russia-diesel-agreement-us-isw
tags: [russia, usa, ukraine, isw, diesel, sanctions]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Russia Attempts to Capitalize on Diesel Agreement with US, But There Is a Catch, - ISW

![Oil refinery and petroleum product export](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/14/rossiya-ispolzuet-dizelnoe-soglashenie-ssha-isw/rossiya-ispolzuet-dizelnoe-soglashenie-ssha-isw-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Russian officials assure the population there is no fuel crisis due to supplies to the US.
- The US Treasury has lifted sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027.
- ISW warns that the Kremlin will favor the export contract over domestic market stability.
- Ukraine insists on an energy truce and threatens to continue strikes on Russian refineries.

Russian authorities are making serious efforts to stabilize the domestic information landscape amid the conclusion of a new diesel agreement with the United States. Specialized agencies and high-ranking officials are diligently assuring citizens that large-scale export supplies abroad will in no way provoke a fuel shortage on the domestic market. ### Government Statements and the Fuel Crisis

Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Alexander Novak publicly stated during a special meeting on October 12 that the resumption of diesel fuel exports to the US is fully controlled by the government. Such steps, according to the official, should not disrupt the fragile balance on the domestic market. This rhetoric is intended to proactively quell the wave of public discontent that actively grew after a series of severe fuel crises and fuel shortages in Russian regions throughout the summer of 2026.

### Meetings and Export Ambitions

As early as October 13, Alexander Novak held emergency consultations with the leadership of the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Transport, and representatives of major oil corporations. Meeting participants discussed current pricing and measures for regional petroleum product supply. Moscow expects to increase diesel exports to three to three and a half million tons monthly by the end of the year, striving not only to return to pre-crisis figures but to surpass them thanks to a temporary US Treasury license lifting sanctions until April 7, 2027.

### Political Context and US Position

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasize that launching such supplies benefits the US administration, which seeks to lower domestic prices ahead of elections, but it also plays into the Kremlin's hands. US President Donald Trump previously openly blamed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries for rising diesel prices rather than the Middle East crisis, demanding that Kyiv halt attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure.

### Contradictory Data

While Russian officials assure the population that the deal is completely safe for the domestic market, ISW experts warn of high risks of the opposite scenario. According to analysts, Moscow is highly likely to prioritize fulfilling the profitable agreement with Washington to the detriment of its own consumers, using the situation to advance its strategic interests and spark divisions between the US and Ukraine. Kyiv, in turn, considers this deal unfair and declares its intention to continue strikes on refineries until a comprehensive energy truce is achieved.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Россия пытается воспользоваться дизельным соглашением с США, но есть нюанс, - ISW](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rosiya-namagaetsya-skoristatisya-dizelnoyu-1791956156.html) - Официальный отчет ISW и данные источника РБК-Украина о ситуации с дизельным соглашением.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: Why did the US lift sanctions on Russian diesel?
**A:** The US Treasury issued a temporary license until April 7, 2027, allowing stabilization of fuel prices on global and American markets.

### Q: How do Russian officials comment on fuel shortage risks?
**A:** Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that exports will not disrupt Russia's domestic market, and the government is taking additional measures to supply regions.

### Q: What is Ukraine's position on the diesel agreement?
**A:** Ukraine considers the deal unfair and threatens to continue strikes on Russian refineries unless an energy truce is reached.