--- title: "Estonian Intelligence: Russia Loses Over 10,000 Military Personnel for the Third Week in a Row, While Refineries Operate 30% Below Pre-War Levels" description: "Estonian intelligence stated that Russia has been losing more than 10,000 military personnel killed and wounded for the third week in a row, while the IEA estimates refining capacity at 30% below pre-war levels due to strikes and sanctions." date: 2026-09-18T12:56:01.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/russia-loses-over-10000-soldiers-third-week-row-estonian-intelligence tags: [russia-ukraine-war, estonia-intelligence, military-losses, oil-refineries, iea, sanctions] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Estonian Intelligence: Russia Loses Over 10,000 Military Personnel for the Third Week in a Row, While Refineries Operate 30% Below Pre-War Levels ![Official in camouflage uniform speaking at a briefing with a microphone against a blue screen backdrop — context for reports on Russian military losses per Estonian intelligence](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/19/rf-tri-nedeli-podryad-teryaet-bolee-10-tysyach-soldat-razvedka-estonii/rf-tri-nedeli-podryad-teryaet-bolee-10-tysyach-soldat-razvedka-estonii-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - According to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Russia has been losing more than 10,000 service members killed and wounded for the third week in a row (around 1,600 per day, over 11,000 per week). - Estonian intelligence claims that Russia is losing more troops on the battlefield than it is able to recruit. - According to an IEA report, Russian refineries' processing capacity will remain 30% below pre-war levels for 18 months due to strikes and sanctions. The head of the Estonian Defence Forces' Intelligence Centre, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, stated at a briefing that the Russian army has been suffering losses of more than 10,000 service members killed and wounded for the third consecutive week in the war against Ukraine. According to him, the average daily losses this week amount to around 1,600 people, totaling just over 11,000 lost in a week. The statement is reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the Estonian broadcaster ERR. ### Losses Exceed Replacement Rates Kiviselg emphasized that Russia is losing more service members on the battlefield than it is able to recruit. According to Estonian intelligence, this is no longer a one-off spike but a sustained trend: the dynamics of losses have remained at a high level for the third week in a row, which, in the colonel's words, indicates a systemic exhaustion of Moscow's ability to make up for the personnel shortfall. ### Strikes on Oil Refining and the Role of Sanctions Citing a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Kiviselg reported that the condition of Russian oil refineries has deteriorated as a result of long-range strikes by the Ukrainian Defence Forces. At the same time, he said, Western sanctions are hindering the restoration of capacity after the airstrikes. The IEA estimates that Russia's refining capacity will remain roughly 30% below pre-war levels for the next 18 months. ### Contradictory Data In the same publication, RBC-Ukraine had previously noted that in early July the losses of Russian troops at the front "increased noticeably," and that in one week the enemy lost more than 1,400 military personnel, according to the outlet. This figure diverges significantly from the current estimate of 11,000 per week given by Kiviselg. The discrepancy may be explained both by a real sharp increase in the intensity of combat operations and losses between July and September 2026, and by differences in the methodology of counting in different reports. Independent verification of both figures by a third-party source is absent in the provided materials, so both values should be regarded as estimates by Estonian intelligence and Ukrainian media as of the respective dates. ### Assessment of Infrastructure Damage In addition, as RBC-Ukraine reported, Estonian intelligence had earlier assessed the damage from long-range strikes by the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the logistics and warehouse assets of the Wildberries network at a sum that could reach 2 billion dollars. These data complement the picture of economic pressure on Russian military and civilian infrastructure against the backdrop of persistently high combat losses. ### Context and Significance Taken together, Kiviselg's statements paint a picture in which Russia is simultaneously facing a personnel crisis at the front and a degradation of its oil refining potential, exacerbated by sanctions pressure. If the estimates of Estonian intelligence are confirmed by subsequent reports, this will become an important indicator of the sustainability of Russia's military effort in the medium term. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Russia loses over 10,000 soldiers in Ukraine for the third week in a row, says Estonian intelligence](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rf-tri-tizhni-pospil-vtrachae-ukrayini-ponad-1789735860.html) - Первичный источник заявления Кивиселга: 10 000+ потерь третью неделю, ~1600/сутки, ~11000/нед; ссылка на отчёт МЭА о НПЗ (-30% на 18 мес.); контекст июльских 1400/нед и ущерба Wildberries до $2 млрд. - [Russia's losses exceed recruitment rates - Estonian intelligence](https://korrespondent.net/world/russia/4912915-potery-rf-vyshe-tempov-nabora-razvedka-estonyy) - Подтверждает тезис о превышении потерь над темпами набора по данным эстонской разведки. - [Russia's losses exceed 10,000 service members for the third week in a row - Estonian intelligence](https://gazeta.ua/ru/articles/world-life/_poteri-rossii-prevyshayut-10-tys-voennosluzhaschih-tretyu-nedelyu-podryad-razvedka-estonii/1258961) - Подтверждает ключевую цифру 10 тыс.+ третью неделю подряд. - [Head of Estonian intelligence: Russia's losses exceed 10,000 military personnel for the third week in a row](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2026/09/18/7245786/) - Подтверждает атрибуцию заявления Кивиселгу и дату (18.09.2026). ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: How many service members does Russia lose per week, according to Estonian intelligence? **A:** According to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the average daily losses amount to around 1,600 people, and just over 11,000 service members killed and wounded per week; this trend has persisted for the third week in a row. ### Q: What does the IEA say about the state of Russian refineries? **A:** According to the IEA report, Russia's refining capacity will remain roughly 30% below pre-war levels for the next 18 months due to Ukrainian long-range strikes and Western sanctions. ### Q: Who released these data? **A:** The statement was made by Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces' Intelligence Centre, at a briefing; the information was carried by ERR and Ukrainian outlets, including RBC-Ukraine.