---
title: "Stability Corridor: Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate Forecast for the Next Week"
description: "Experts forecast stability in the currency market: the dollar will remain in the 44.4–45 UAH corridor, and the euro in the 51–52.5 UAH range. The main risk to the hryvnia is identified not as exchange rate fluctuations, but as the fuel situation, which could impact inflation. 💵📉"
date: 2026-07-11T04:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/stability-corridor-dollar-and-euro-exchange-rate-forecast-for-the-next-week
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Stability Corridor: Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate Forecast for the Next Week

![Stacks of US dollar bills overlaid on a stock market chart — visualizing the forecast for dollar and euro exchange rates next week](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/11/prognoz-kursa-dollara-i-evro-na-sleduyushchuyu-nedelyu/prognoz-kursa-dollara-i-evro-na-sleduyushchuyu-nedelyu-1.webp)

According to experts, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is expected to continue demonstrating relative stability over the coming week. Sharp fluctuations in exchange rates are not anticipated: the dollar will fluctuate near current levels, while the euro will remain dependent on global trends and the domestic situation.

Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, provided specific forecasts in a comment to RBC-Ukraine. In his assessment, the US dollar exchange rate is unlikely to go beyond the range of 44.4–45 hryvnias. This continues the trend that formed in early July, when the market entered a phase of moderate fluctuations without panic or sharp movements.

### Managed Flexibility and the Role of the NBU

Experts cite the current regime of "managed flexibility" as the key factor for calmness in the market. It allows the National Bank to respond promptly to imbalances between currency supply and demand. Thanks to this mechanism, even with active demand from importers, the market does not demonstrate chaotic changes.

On the interbank market, the projected corridor for the dollar will be 44.4–45 UAH, while on the cash market it will be 44.5–45 UAH. The expert does not predict a significant gap between bank, exchange office, and interbank rates: the cash market will continue to be oriented towards the interbank rate.

### Euro Forecast and Global Factors

As for the European currency, the baseline forecast assumes a range of 51–52.5 UAH. The euro exchange rate is traditionally formed under the influence of two factors:

- The ratio of the hryvnia to the dollar.

- The situation in the international foreign exchange market, specifically in the euro/dollar pair.

If the global conjuncture does not change radically, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine will remain within the projected limits.

### The Main Risk is Not Currency, but Fuel

According to Taras Lesovoy, the greatest risk to the hryvnia at present is related less to the currency market itself and more to fuel. Fuel prices have a direct impact on import demand, logistics costs, transport, and general inflationary expectations. If global prices or fuel supply problems increase pressure on the market, importers may need more currency.

However, there is no basis to talk about a systemic fuel shortage. After the experience of 2022, the Ukrainian market has become significantly more resilient, and import routes are fully streamlined. At the same time, local difficulties with the operation of individual gas stations or logistics may temporarily affect prices and consumer behavior.

### Interventions as a Defense Tool

Despite the expected stability, the coming week is unlikely to be completely risk-free. If demand for currency significantly exceeds supply, the National Bank may increase currency interventions. In such a case, their total volume could approach $900 million per week.

The regulator's main task in the coming days will remain preventing local risks from escalating into large-scale exchange rate nervousness.