--- title: "New Sunflower Harvest to Stabilize Oil Prices in Ukraine, but No Price Cuts Expected by the End of 2026" description: "The new sunflower harvest should stabilize oil prices in Ukraine, but analysts do not expect a significant price cut by the end of 2026. The key factor remains global quotes and exports." date: 2026-09-15T06:14:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/sunflower-oil-prices-ukraine-2026 tags: [sunflower-oil, ukraine-prices, food-inflation, agriculture, export] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # New Sunflower Harvest to Stabilize Oil Prices in Ukraine, but No Price Cuts Expected by the End of 2026 ![Senior shopper selecting a bottle of sunflower oil in a supermarket amid price stabilization in Ukraine](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/15/ceny-podsolnechnogo-masla-ukraina-2026/ceny-podsolnechnogo-masla-ukraina-2026-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - The new sunflower harvest is creating the preconditions for stabilizing oil purchase prices in Ukraine. - Analysts do not expect a significant price cut by the end of 2026: a return to a lower level is unlikely. - The domestic price depends not only on the harvest but also on global quotes and export opportunities. - The average price of a liter of sunflower oil in Ukraine is currently around 99 hryvnia. - Global food prices in August showed the highest growth since the end of 2022 due to weather and the war in the Black Sea. The arrival of the new sunflower harvest on the Ukrainian market is creating the preconditions for stabilizing sunflower oil prices, although analysts do not expect a significant drop in prices by the end of 2026. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine in the article "Eggs, meat, and dairy will get more expensive: what will happen to food prices by the end of the year." According to expert Hopska, with the new harvest, the supply of raw materials on the market will grow, which will help smooth out the volatility of purchase prices and make them more predictable for processors and retailers. ### The New Harvest as a Stabilizing Factor The key mechanism highlighted by the analyst is the increase in raw material supply. "This creates the preconditions for a more stable situation with purchase prices," Hopska explained. In his words, once the new harvest is fully in, the price of oil will most likely settle at a more even level. At the same time, the expert explicitly noted that a return to a significantly lower price level is unlikely: the market is emerging from the phase of rising prices not toward a sharp decline, but toward stabilization at an elevated level. ### Dependence on the Global Market and Exports According to the analyst, the domestic price of sunflower oil in Ukraine is determined not only by the harvest but also by the situation on the global market. Ukraine produces significantly more sunflower oil than it consumes domestically, so global prices and export opportunities remain critical for this segment. This means that even with a good domestic harvest, the final price for the consumer will be sensitive to the dynamics of global quotes and the state of export channels. ### Current Price Levels and Global Dynamics At present, according to the publication, one liter of sunflower oil in Ukraine costs on average around 99 hryvnia. This level is forming against the backdrop of a general rise in global food prices: in August, they showed the highest increase since the end of 2022, driven by unfavorable weather in Europe and Asia, as well as the consequences of the war in the Black Sea. Thus, the Ukrainian consumer sees on the shelf a price that reflects both the domestic harvest cycle and global inflationary dynamics. ### Contradictory Data Here it is important to honestly distinguish between two pictures. On the domestic Ukrainian market, experts expect precisely a stabilization of prices without a noticeable drop: the new harvest smooths out purchase quotes but does not roll them back. At the same time, on global and export markets the dynamics are different β€” according to Kommersant, export prices for sunflower oil have begun to fall after a full year of growth. In other words, domestic retail and export quotes are moving in different phases of the cycle: within the country the price is settling at an elevated level, while on the external market a decline has emerged after the peak of growth. The difference between these two tracks explains why the Ukrainian consumer will not get a "sharp price cut," even if global export prices are corrected downward. ### Context: Logistics and the Absence of Shortages The logistics factor deserves separate consideration. In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky noted that there is no systemic shortage of food products in Ukraine, however, individual items may temporarily disappear from sale due to delivery problems. This means that local and short-term gaps on the shelves should not be confused with a general shortage: they are linked to supply chains, not to the absence of products. Together with the new sunflower harvest, this forms a picture in which by the end of 2026 the oil market will most likely be stable, but not cheap. ## πŸ” Fact-Check Verification - [Sunflower oil depends on the global market: what will happen to prices in Ukraine by the end of 2026](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/sonyashnikova-oliya-zalezhit-vid-svitovogo-1789397454.html) - Основной источник: ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ· стабилизации Ρ†Π΅Π½ послС Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ уроТая, Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ ΠΎΡ‚ ΠΌΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Ρ€Ρ‹Π½ΠΊΠ°, срСдняя Ρ†Π΅Π½Π° ~99 Π³Ρ€Π½/Π», Ρ†ΠΈΡ‚Π°Ρ‚Ρ‹ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΡ‚ΠΈΠΊΠ° Π“ΠΎΠΏΠΊΠΈ. - [Will sunflower oil get sharply more expensive: Ukrainians were told what to expect](https://glavred.info/economics/nachnet-li-podsolnechnoe-maslo-rezko-dorozhat-ukraincam-skazali-k-chemu-gotovitsya-10732127.html) - ΠŸΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅Ρ‚ контСкст обсуТдСния Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ Ρ†Π΅Π½ Π½Π° масло ΠΈ ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Ρ€Π΅Π±ΠΈΡ‚Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π±Π΅Π· Ρ€Π΅Π·ΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ подороТания. - [Export prices for sunflower oil have begun to fall after a year of growth](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8251970) - Использован для Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ° Β«ΠŸΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡ€Π΅Ρ‡ΠΈΠ²Ρ‹Π΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅Β»: экспортныС ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΡ€Ρ€Π΅ΠΊΡ‚ΠΈΡ€ΡƒΡŽΡ‚ΡΡ Π²Π½ΠΈΠ· послС Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π° роста, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ расходится ΠΏΠΎ Ρ„Π°Π·Π΅ с Π²Π½ΡƒΡ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π½Π΅ΠΉ стабилизациСй Π±Π΅Π· ΡƒΠ΄Π΅ΡˆΠ΅Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ. - [Almost 100 hryvnia on the price tag: a basic product has reached record prices in Ukraine](https://glavred.info/ukraine/pochti-100-griven-na-cennike-v-ukraine-rekordno-podorozhal-bazovyy-produkt-10758998.html) - ΠŸΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅Ρ‚ контСкст обсуТдСния Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ Ρ†Π΅Π½ Π½Π° масло ΠΈ ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡ‚Ρ€Π΅Π±ΠΈΡ‚Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π±Π΅Π· Ρ€Π΅Π·ΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ подороТания. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: Will sunflower oil get cheaper in Ukraine by the end of 2026? **A:** No, analysts do not expect a significant price cut. The new harvest is creating the preconditions for stabilizing purchase prices, but a return to a significantly lower level is unlikely. ### Q: How much does a liter of sunflower oil cost in Ukraine now? **A:** On average, around 99 hryvnia per liter, which corresponds to the "almost 100 hryvnia" level on price tags. ### Q: What does the price of oil in Ukraine depend on? **A:** Not only on the domestic harvest, but also on global quotes and export opportunities, since Ukraine produces more oil than it consumes domestically. ### Q: Is there a shortage of food products in Ukraine? **A:** According to the Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky, there is no systemic shortage, however, individual items may temporarily disappear from sale due to delivery problems.