---
title: "The French Election Paradox: Le Pen Leads in Polls, but Court Bans Her from Running"
description: "Marine Le Pen leads in polls ahead of the 2027 elections with 35%, but a court ban on holding office may prevent her from running. 🇫🇷⚖️ The court upheld the embezzlement verdict, making her participation in the race uncertain."
date: 2026-07-09T12:46:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/the-french-election-paradox-le-pen-leads-in-polls-but-court-bans-her-from-running
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# The French Election Paradox: Le Pen Leads in Polls, but Court Bans Her from Running

![Marine Le Pen with a serious expression against a backdrop of blooming trees, symbolizing the political paradox: leading in polls but banned from running for election](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/09/le-pen-lideruet-v-oprosah-no-sud-zapretil-ey-ballotirovatsya/le-pen-lideruet-v-oprosah-no-sud-zapretil-ey-ballotirovatsya-1.webp)

The political situation in France ahead of the upcoming 2027 presidential elections is taking on unexpected contours. According to fresh sociological data, the leader of the far-right party "National Rally," Marine Le Pen, is demonstrating a steady rise in popularity, yet legal realities could put an end to her political career.

### Optimistic Forecast for the Far-Right

The results of a study conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for the RTL television channel show that Marine Le Pen has a high chance of winning in both rounds of voting. In the first round of the election, the leader of the "National Rally" could count on the support of 35% of voters.

The poll scenario accounts for competition from key figures in French politics: the leader of the "Renaissance" party, Gabriel Attal (8%), and the head of the center-right party Horizons, Édouard Philippe (14%). The second place in this scenario is held by the left-wing forces led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 16% of the vote.

Analysts are also considering an alternative scenario: if Gabriel Attal withdraws his candidacy in favor of Édouard Philippe, the leader of Horizons could garner 20%, overtaking Mélenchon. However, even in this case, the gap with Le Pen would remain significant — 34% against 20%.

### Battle for the Second Round

In the decisive second round, Marine Le Pen maintains her lead, outpacing her main rival Édouard Philippe with a result of 51% to 49%. Notably, analysts are tracking the dynamics: the gap between the candidates is narrowing. In the previous similar poll, the balance of power stood at 52% to 48% in favor of Le Pen.

The study was conducted online on July 7–8. It involved 1,837 people officially registered on the electoral rolls of France.

### Legal Deadlock

Despite the optimistic figures, the political future of Marine Le Pen is under threat due to a ruling by the Paris Court of Appeal. The court upheld the verdict in the case of embezzlement of European Parliament funds. The case concerns €2.8 million that was supposed to be used to pay for the work of MEP assistants.

The court confirmed a fine of €100,000, as well as a sentence of three years in prison. Of this term, two years are suspended, and another year Le Pen must serve under electronic monitoring using an ankle bracelet.

Crucial for the election was the court's decision to reduce the ban on holding public office to two years. Since the count of this period began on March 31, 2025, formally the politician will not be able to run for the presidency in the 2027 elections.

### Uncertainty of the Campaign

Marine Le Pen's participation in the election race remains in question. Previously, she stated that she would not conduct active campaigning if forced to wear an electronic bracelet. This creates a paradoxical situation: a leader who is a favorite according to polls may be forced to withdraw from the election due to a court verdict.

Recall that Marine Le Pen has already run for President of France three times. In 2017 and 2022, she reached the second round twice but lost both times to the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. Furthermore, Le Pen's party has repeatedly been linked to Russia, citing loans received from Russian banks and contacts with representatives of the RF and occupied Crimea.