--- title: "Axios: Trump may authorize large-scale strikes on Iran if Republicans lose midterm elections" description: "Axios: Trump may authorize large-scale strikes on Iran if Republicans lose the November 3 election. The White House denies this, while Iran prepares its military for confrontation." date: 2026-11-01T02:53:05.363Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/trump-iran-strike-midterm-elections tags: [trump, iran, us-midterm-elections, military-strikes, white-house] author: "Marina Slivenko" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Axios: Trump may authorize large-scale strikes on Iran if Republicans lose midterm elections ![Donald Trump with a serious expression at a podium during a public speech](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/01/trump-iran-strike-midterm-elections/trump-iran-strike-midterm-elections-1.webp) ## Key Points - According to Axios, Trump may resort to a large-scale operation against Iran if Republicans perform poorly in the November 3 election. - A White House spokesperson rejected the link between election outcomes and policy toward Iran. - Axios reports a post-election U.S.-Israel strike plan; The Atlantic reports on pre-election strike options. - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly ordered his military to prepare for a renewed conflict. - Bloomberg records a rise in Iranian tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—nine since early October. According to RBC-Ukraine, citing an Axios journalist's source, U.S. President Donald Trump may be inclined to launch a large-scale military operation against Iran if the Republican Party shows poor results in the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. A U.S. official familiar with the discussions stated that if the head of state feels "humiliated or lacks support" due to the voting results, he will "do something bold." According to the source, this is the message currently being conveyed to Iranian representatives, signaling that the best chance to reach a deal with Washington is right now. ### Link to midterm elections The scenario of possible escalation is being considered against the backdrop of strained relations between Washington and Tehran and parallel attempts to resume negotiations. On October 29, Axios reported that the U.S. and Israel had prepared a plan for large-scale strikes against Iran: according to American and Israeli officials, the operation could begin after the midterm elections and last about a week. Meanwhile, The Atlantic, cited by Vedomosti, points to a different logic: it claims the White House has instructed the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be executed before November 3, with the current "lull" coinciding with the campaign period to "avoid reminding voters of an unpopular war that is dragging down Republican candidates' positions." ### White House and Iranian positions At the same time, a White House spokesperson rejected the suggestion that midterm election results could influence Trump's decision on Iran, assuring that electoral outcomes would not be a factor in determining American policy toward Tehran. On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly ordered the military command to prepare for a possible resumption of conflict with the U.S. and Israel. Thus, both sides are simultaneously demonstrating readiness for negotiations and for a military scenario. ### Details of strike plans and pressure tools The scale and specific targets of potential strikes are reportedly still under discussion. CNN, cited by 9tv.co.il, reports that the U.S. is considering using the "Mother of All Bombs" on Iran; however, the outlet notes that Trump might use it for psychological pressure on Tehran, and U.S. officials doubt that this would force Iran to capitulate or bring a strategic victory. Trump, for his part, previously stated that the war in Iran would end either with a U.S. strike or a deal. ### Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and additional threats An additional factor of tension is the increase in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz: according to Bloomberg, Iran has increased the number of strikes on tankers—with nine attacks recorded just since the beginning of October, which is half of all strikes in September. Separately, Euronews reports that Trump promised a "very tough" response to Iran if the country's authorities are linked to an incident involving a Flydubai aircraft. The combination of these signals indicates that the window for a diplomatic settlement is closing, and a decision on a military scenario may be tied to the U.S. political calendar. ## Accounts differ ### Timing of potential U.S. strikes on Iran - **Axios (via RBC-Ukraine):** The operation could begin after the November 3 congressional elections and last about a week. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tramp-mozhe-zavdati-potuzhnogo-udaru-iranu-1793501035.html)) - **The Atlantic (via Vedomosti):** The White House ordered the Pentagon to develop strike options that could be carried out before the midterms. ([vedomosti.ru](https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2026/10/07/1235245-tramp-mozhet-prikazat)) *Where they agree:* The U.S. is preparing options for large-scale strikes against Iran, and the November 3 midterms are a key milestone. ### Impact of midterm election results on the Iran decision - **U.S. official (Axios):** If Trump feels humiliated or unsupported by the election results, he might resort to decisive action. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tramp-mozhe-zavdati-potuzhnogo-udaru-iranu-1793501035.html)) - **White House spokesperson:** Election results will not be a factor in determining American policy toward Tehran. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tramp-mozhe-zavdati-potuzhnogo-udaru-iranu-1793501035.html)) *Where they agree:* The U.S. is exploring military action options regarding Iran amid tense confrontation. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Трамп может нанести мощный удар по Ирану, если республиканцы проиграют, - Axios](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tramp-mozhe-zavdati-potuzhnogo-udaru-iranu-1793501035.html) - Primary source: official's quote, White House position, Khamenei's order, post-November 3 strike plan. - [CNN: США рассматривают удар по Ирану "матерью всех бомб"](https://www.9tv.co.il/item/270459) - CNN: consideration of "Mother of All Bombs," official doubts about strategic effect. - [СМИ: Трамп может приказать нанести удары по Ирану до промежуточных выборов](https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2026/10/07/1235245-tramp-mozhet-prikazat) - The Atlantic: preparation of strike options before November 3; Bloomberg: 9 tanker attacks since early October. - [Трамп грозит Ирану "очень жёстким" ударом, если тот связан с нападением пилота Flydubai](https://ru.euronews.com/2026/10/02/trump-iran-flydubai) - Threat of a harsh response if Iran is linked to the Flydubai incident. ## FAQ ### When could potential U.S. strikes on Iran begin, according to reports? Sources differ: Axios indicates the operation could start after the November 3 midterm elections and last a week, while The Atlantic reports that the White House has directed the Pentagon to prepare strike options before the elections. ### Has the White House confirmed that election results influence the decision on Iran? No. A White House spokesperson rejected this assumption, stating that electoral outcomes will not be a factor in U.S. policy toward Tehran, although an American official in the Axios report linked a possible decisive reaction to feelings of being "humiliated" by poor election results. ### What is Iran doing in response? According to reports, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered military command to prepare for a possible resumption of conflict with the U.S. and Israel; Bloomberg also notes an increase in attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.