---
title: "Trump Prepares Iran for a Prolonged War: US Forecasts Multi-Week Exchange of Strikes in the Strait of Hormuz"
description: "The Trump administration is preparing Iran for a prolonged war: the US forecasts a multi-week cycle of mutual strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the collapse of the agreement on asset unblocking and attacks on tankers, the Pentagon has moved to an active phase. 🚢💥⚠️"
date: 2026-07-09T14:06:56.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/trump-prepares-iran-for-prolonged-war-us-forecasts-strikes-in-strait-of-hormuz
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Trump Prepares Iran for a Prolonged War: US Forecasts Multi-Week Exchange of Strikes in the Strait of Hormuz

![Missiles against the backdrop of the US flag: preparation for a potential conflict in the Strait of Hormuz](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/09/ssha-i-iran-ormuzskiy-proliv-voennaya-kampaniya-2026/ssha-i-iran-ormuzskiy-proliv-voennaya-kampaniya-2026-1.webp)

The administration of US President Donald Trump has moved to formulate a long-term defense strategy in the Persian Gulf region. According to data obtained by Axios from official representatives of the White House and the Pentagon, Washington is preparing the country for a prolonged cycle of mutual strikes with the Iranian Armed Forces. The scale and timeframe of this military campaign will depend directly on the intensity of actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against international shipping.

### Breakdown of Diplomacy and the Start of the Kinetic Phase

The current phase of destabilization in the region occurred after the annulment of a bilateral memorandum of understanding signed by representatives of the US and Iran on June 18, 2026. The document obligated Tehran to maintain unimpeded traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a partial easing of the sanctions regime by the US Department of the Treasury. However, radical factions within the leadership of the Islamic Republic expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of unfreezing sovereign financial assets and the efficiency of mechanisms for approving oil transactions.

Escalation moved to the kinetic stage following incidents at the end of June and the first week of July. Commercial vessels under the flags of various states, including Singapore, were attacked using unmanned aerial vehicles and anti-ship missiles. In response, the US Central Command (USCENTCOM) initiated a series of strikes against ground infrastructure and air defense positions in Iran, marking the department's largest operation in recent months.

### Energy Risks and Logistics Maneuvers

Representatives of the US National Security Council emphasize that the current campaign has a higher threshold of escalation resilience for Washington compared to crises of previous years. This is due to a change in logistics routes: in the preceding weeks, a significant portion of the tanker fleet was redirected to the southern transport corridor running through the territorial waters of Oman. Such a maneuver reduced the risks of a simultaneous blockade of crude oil supplies to global markets and minimized volatility in raw material futures prices for Brent and WTI grades.

It is important to note that the shipping regime in the Strait of Hormuz is regulated by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The document establishes the right of transit passage for international vessels through straits used for international navigation, imposing obligations on all coastal states to ensure the safety of navigation.

### Positions of the Parties and Strategic Priorities

The position of the American administration is coordinated within the following structure of strategic priorities:

    - **US President Donald Trump:** Noted the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire regime and confirmed readiness to increase firepower.

    - **Vice President JD Vance:** Stated the uncompromising status of freedom of navigation, noting that the use of military force is viewed as the only alternative response to the closure of the strait.

    - **Central Command (CENTCOM):** Provides operational monitoring of the waters of the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, conducting counter-battery and preventive measures.

On the Iranian side, officials, including the head of the negotiation group Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, place responsibility for the breakdown of agreements on the American side, accusing Washington of failing to meet obligations on the economic track. Iranian leadership declares the right to sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz and warns of readiness to launch retaliatory strikes against coordination centers and US logistics bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in the event of continued air operations.