---
title: "Tusk: Russia is preparing strikes on NATO's eastern flank under the guise of 'accidental incidents'"
description: "Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that during the autumn–winter period Russia may carry out drone and missile strikes on countries on NATO's eastern flank, classifying them as 'accidental incidents' in order to undermine the unity of the Alliance and devalue Article 5."
date: 2026-09-18T01:52:03.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/tusk-warns-of-russia-strikes-on-nato-eastern-flank
tags: [nato, russia, poland, ukraine, drones, defense, eastern-flank, article-5]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Tusk: Russia is preparing strikes on NATO's eastern flank under the guise of 'accidental incidents'

![Donald Tusk at a podium warning that Russia is preparing strikes on NATO's eastern flank disguised as accidental incidents](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/19/tusk-predupredil-o-udarah-rossii-po-vostochnomu-flanku-nato/tusk-predupredil-o-udarah-rossii-po-vostochnomu-flanku-nato-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Tusk stated that the intelligence services of NATO, Ukraine, and Poland point to a scenario in which Russia will attack countries on NATO's eastern flank with drones and missiles
- In the event of an incident, Moscow's official version, according to Warsaw's assessment, will be reduced to 'an accident' with no grounds for a NATO response
- The aim of such provocations is to undermine the integrity of the Alliance and convince NATO members that Article 5 is of a theoretical nature
- Autumn and winter 2026 are named a critical period: Russia will continue strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure, and attacks are increasingly occurring near the Polish border
- Russia is actively deploying a new generation of jet-powered drones that are harder to detect and intercept

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued a sharp warning that in the coming months Russia could significantly expand the geography of its attacks — not only by continuing to target Ukraine, but also by directing drones and missiles at the territories of states supporting Kyiv. The Polish leader made these remarks in an interview cited by Politico and quoted by RBC-Ukraine and several other media outlets. According to Tusk, the intelligence assessments of NATO, Ukraine, and Poland are "highly consistent and compelling" and point to a specific escalation scenario that Warsaw considers the most likely for the autumn–winter period of 2026.

### 'Accidental incident' as a tool of pressure on the Alliance

The central point of Tusk's statement is that Moscow may deliberately allow drones or missiles to land on the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank, and then officially classify what happened as an "accidental incident" that provides no grounds for activating collective defense mechanisms. "The aim will be to undermine the integrity of NATO as a whole and, above all, to convince member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical," the Polish prime minister emphasized. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty enshrines the principle of collective defense: an armed attack on one member of the Alliance is regarded as an attack on all. Thus, according to Warsaw's assessment, Russia will attempt to test NATO's readiness to respond to such provocations and to weaken the bloc's unity from within.

### Autumn and winter — a critical period for Ukraine and its neighbors

Tusk separately warned that the coming autumn and winter months will be an extremely difficult period for Ukraine. Russian armed forces, he said, will continue intense strikes on Ukrainian cities, energy and transport infrastructure, and logistics facilities. The prime minister noted that Moscow will pay particular attention to ammunition depots, railway hubs, and other objects of strategic importance for Ukraine's defense. "For now, it is Ukraine," he stated, pointing to the current vector of the attacks. At the same time, Tusk emphasized that the consequences of such strikes could directly affect Poland as well, since the attacks are increasingly occurring in the immediate vicinity of the Polish–Ukrainian border, creating additional risks for the border regions.

### A new generation of jet-powered drones is changing the rules of the game

Worthy of separate attention is Tusk's mention of a new generation of jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles that Russia is increasingly deploying against Ukraine. According to the Polish prime minister, such drones move significantly faster and at greater altitudes than previous models, which substantially complicates their detection, tracking, and interception by air defense systems. "We are about to face a very serious test, because we will certainly become the target of far more dangerous provocations and incidents than before," Tusk warned, effectively stating that the existing early-warning and air defense systems on NATO's eastern flank may prove unprepared for new types of threats.

### Context: from warning to emergency meetings in Warsaw

Tusk's statement came against a backdrop of growing tension around the Polish–Ukrainian border. Earlier, after the Polish prime minister reported a Russian drone strike near the border between Poland and Ukraine, an emergency cabinet meeting was convened in Warsaw the following day, with the participation of military and law enforcement structures. At that meeting, Tusk spoke of the possibility of a real Russian incursion onto Polish territory, which became one of the sharpest public statements by Polish leadership throughout the course of the conflict. The prime minister's current remarks can be seen as a systematization and public fixation of the risks that have already been discussed in closed format at the level of the Alliance's defense departments.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Tusk warns of Russian strike on NATO under the guise of 'an accident'](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tusk-poperediv-udar-rosiyi-nato-pid-viglyadom-1789695524.html) - Цитаты Туска, сценарий «случайного инцидента», упоминание статьи 5, оценка осенне-зимнего периода — всё совпадает с основным текстом.
- [Tusk calls a Russian strike on NATO a real one and outlines the Kremlin's likely official position](https://gazeta.ua/ru/articles/politics/_tusk-nazval-udar-rossii-po-nato-realnym-i-ozvuchil-veroyatnuyu-oficialnuyu-poziciyu-kremlya/1258898) - Подтверждает тезис о «реальном» характере угрозы и вероятной позиции Москвы. Нет расхождений с другими источниками.
- [Polish Prime Minister: Russia is planning missile strikes on the territory of NATO countries](https://news.am/ru/news/1062462) - Фиксирует упоминание ракетных ударов по странам НАТО. Согласуется с цитатами Туска.
- [Tusk names the countries that could come under Russian strikes](https://tsn.ua/ru/politika/tusk-nazval-strany-kotorye-mogut-okazatsya-pod-udarami-rossii-3170765.html) - Подтверждает указание на Польшу и другие страны восточного фланга. Дополнительных противоречий не выявлено.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: What exactly did Donald Tusk say about the threat to NATO?
**A:** Tusk stated that intelligence data from NATO, Ukraine, and Poland point to a scenario in which Russia may use drones and missiles to attack countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland and other states on NATO's eastern flank. According to him, this data is 'highly consistent and compelling.'

### Q: What 'official version' of Moscow does Tusk predict in the event of an incident?
**A:** According to Tusk's assessment, Russia's official version will be that it was an 'accidental incident' and that there are no grounds for considering any NATO response. The aim is to convince Alliance members that Article 5 is theoretical rather than practical.

### Q: Which objects on Ukrainian territory, according to Tusk, will be a priority for Russian strikes?
**A:** Tusk pointed to depots, railway infrastructure, and other objects of importance for Ukraine's defense, as well as cities, energy infrastructure, and logistics facilities. He emphasized that autumn and winter will be an extremely difficult period for Ukraine.

### Q: What did Tusk say about the new Russian drones?
**A:** The Polish prime minister mentioned a new generation of jet-powered drones that Russia is actively deploying against Ukraine. According to him, such drones move significantly faster and at greater altitudes, which complicates their detection and interception by air defense systems.

### Q: What context preceded Tusk's statement?
**A:** Earlier, after Tusk's report of a Russian drone strike near the border between Poland and Ukraine, an emergency cabinet meeting was convened in Warsaw with the participation of military and law enforcement structures. At that meeting, the prime minister spoke of a possible real Russian incursion into Poland.