---
title: "Two Rassevet Satellites Drop Below 230 km and Risk Atmospheric Re-entry: What Is Known About Their Fate"
description: "Two satellites of the Russian Rassevet constellation have dropped below 230 km and, according to tracking data, may burn up in the atmosphere within the next 48 hours. Most spacecraft of the second batch, according to McDowell, have stabilized at an altitude of about 500 km."
date: 2026-10-28T19:43:09.493Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/two-rassevet-satellites-drop-below-230-km
tags: [rasvet, starlink-analog, bureau-1440, satellite-constellation, space]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Two Rassevet Satellites Drop Below 230 km and Risk Atmospheric Re-entry: What Is Known About Their Fate

![Communication satellite in Earth orbit against the background of starry space and the planet](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/28/rasvet-dva-sputnika-mogut-sgoret-v-atmosfere/rasvet-dva-sputnika-mogut-sgoret-v-atmosfere-1.webp)

## Key Points

- Two satellites of the second Rassevet-3 batch have dropped below 230 km and could burn up in the atmosphere within 24–48 hours.
- According to Jonathan McDowell, most spacecraft from the second batch have stabilized at an operational altitude of about 500 km.
- With the loss of two spacecraft, the total number of defunct satellites will reach three out of 32 launched.
- Bureau 1440 plans to launch partial commercial service in 2027 and scale the constellation to 292 satellites by the end of 2027.

According to astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, two spacecraft from Russia's Rassevet internet constellation failed to perform orbit-raising maneuvers and dropped below the 230 km mark. At this altitude, atmospheric drag is significant enough to cause the vehicles to de-orbit and burn up in the dense layers of the atmosphere within the next 24 to 48 hours. Both problematic satellites are part of the second batch of 16 Rassevet-3 spacecraft, which Bureau 1440 launched into orbit on July 19, 2026, using a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

### Chronology: From Launch to Orbital Decay

Tracking services detected an anomaly as early as late August 2026: two spacecraft from the second batch began descending without ever executing maneuvers to reach their operational altitude. Since then, their orbit has continued to degrade, and currently, their altitude has fallen below 230 km. If the de-orbit is confirmed, the total number of defunct satellites in the constellation will reach three out of 32 launched. The first Rassevet spacecraft de-orbited in June 2026, having also failed to perform any maneuvers after being placed into orbit on March 23.

### Constellation Status According to Tracking Data

According to McDowell's assessment, most of the remaining spacecraft in the second batch have instead stabilized at an operational altitude of about 500 km. Thus, a discrepancy in dynamics is observed within the same batch: some satellites reached their target orbit, while two went onto a de-orbit trajectory. Certain publications and analytical centers offer a more pessimistic assessment, pointing out that the second batch as a whole failed to reach its planned working orbit; these data diverge from orbital tracking results showing the stabilization of most vehicles.

### Project Context and Official Statements

Rassevet is being developed by the private company Bureau 1440 and is intended to provide satellite internet across Russia, including hard-to-reach regions. At an exhibition during the Russia–Africa summit, President Vladimir Putin called the system a "first step" in creating a domestic counterpart to Starlink, noting that local specialists are working on it independently while Moscow maintains contact with American partners, including Elon Musk. Partial commercial service is planned to begin in 2027, according to company schedules.

### Plans for Constellation Expansion

Bureau 1440 expects to expand the constellation to 292 satellites by the end of 2027 and to 900 spacecraft by 2035. The loss of two spacecraft from the second batch at the current launch rate does not alter the target indicators, but it highlights the technical complexities of placing satellites into low operational orbits and executing subsequent maneuvers. The actual status of the constellation and the timeline for launching commercial service will depend on the results of subsequent launches and the success of delivering spacecraft to their target altitude.

## Accounts differ

### Insertion of the second Rassevet batch into operational orbit

- **Jonathan McDowell (orbital tracking data, ixbt.com):** Most spacecraft of the second batch stabilized at an operational altitude of about 500 km, while two dropped below 230 km. ([ixbt.com](https://www.ixbt.com/news/2026/10/28/rossiiskii-analog-starlink-bolsinstvo-sputnikov-gruppirovki-rasvet-stabilizirovalis-na-vysote-okolo-500-km-no-dva-apparata-opustilis-nize-230-km.html))
- **gazeta.ua:** None of the 16 satellites in the second batch reached their planned operational orbit. ([gazeta.ua](https://gazeta.ua/ru/articles/world-life/_ni-odin-iz-16-sputnikov-ne-vyshel-na-rabochuyu-orbitu-rossijskij-analog-starlink-poterpel-neudachu/1257862))
- **ISW (via charter97.org):** The second batch of Russian Rassevet satellites failed to climb to the required altitude. ([charter97.org](https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/9/1/696829/))

*Where they agree:* The second batch of 16 spacecraft was launched on July 19, 2026, and includes satellites that failed to perform orbit-raising maneuvers.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Российский аналог Starlink: большинство спутников группировки «Рассвет» стабилизировались на высоте около 500 км, но два аппарата опустились ниже 230 км](https://www.ixbt.com/news/2026/10/28/rossiiskii-analog-starlink-bolsinstvo-sputnikov-gruppirovki-rasvet-stabilizirovalis-na-vysote-okolo-500-km-no-dva-apparata-opustilis-nize-230-km.html) - Primary source: McDowell's data on two spacecraft below 230 km and the stabilization of most at ~500 km; launch on 19.07.2026 via Soyuz-2.1b from Plesetsk.
- [Россия сделала первый шаг к созданию собственного аналога Starlink: что он из себя представляет](https://ircity.ru/text/world/2026/10/28/76730047/) - Putin's statement at the Russia–Africa summit about the "first step" and contact with Musk; service launch plan in 2027.
- [Ни один из 16 спутников не вышел на рабочую орбиту: российский "аналог" Starlink потерпел неудачу](https://gazeta.ua/ru/articles/world-life/_ni-odin-iz-16-sputnikov-ne-vyshel-na-rabochuyu-orbitu-rossijskij-analog-starlink-poterpel-neudachu/1257862) - The assertion that none of the 16 spacecraft reached operational orbit contradicts McDowell's data on the stabilization of the majority.
- [Российский аналог Starlink провалился](https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/9/1/696829/) - ISW: the second batch failed to reach the required altitude; the general thesis regarding problems with the second batch is confirmed, but the headline wording is evaluative.

## FAQ

### What is happening to the two Rassevet satellites?

According to astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, two spacecraft from the second batch failed to perform orbit-raising maneuvers, dropped below 230 km, and may burn up in the atmosphere within the next 24–48 hours.

### When and how was the second Rassevet-3 batch launched?

On July 19, 2026, Bureau 1440 launched 16 satellites using a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

### How many satellites have already dropped out of the constellation?

The first spacecraft de-orbited in June 2026. If the two second-batch spacecraft are lost, the total number of defunct units will reach three out of 32 launched.

### When will Rassevet commercial service begin?

Partial commercial service is planned to start in 2027; by the end of 2027, the company expects to scale the constellation to 292 satellites, and to 900 by 2035.