---
title: "Anomalous Warmth 5°C Above Normal: Meteorologists Explain Why Ukrainian October Resembles September"
description: "Meteorologists explained why October brings anomalous warmth 5°C above normal to several Ukrainian regions. Anticyclone Gerhard will provide sunny and dry weather until the end of the week, postponing the start of the heating season."
date: 2026-10-20T10:09:59.108Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/ukraine-anomalous-warmth-october-2026
tags: [ukraine-weather, autumn-2026, temperature-anomaly, meteorology, cherkasy-region, anticyclone]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Anomalous Warmth 5°C Above Normal: Meteorologists Explain Why Ukrainian October Resembles September

![A beautiful young woman in a white sweater and jacket walks down an autumn city street among golden trees](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/20/ukraine-anomalous-warmth-october-2026/ukraine-anomalous-warmth-october-2026-1.webp)

## Key Points

- In the Cherkasy region, the average daily temperature over the weekend was +12…+14°C, which is 5°C above the climatic norm and corresponds to the second half of September
- Warm air was brought to the region by a southern cyclone from the Caspian Lowland; anticyclone Gerhard is now becoming the dominant weather factor
- The influx of Arctic cold is blocked until the end of the week; winds will supply warmed air from the Mediterranean and the Balkans
- The anomalous warmth will make it possible to postpone the start of the heating season and save energy resources
- High-altitude Carpathian areas recorded frosts and snowfall on October 16, creating a sharp contrast with the flatland regions

October 2026 in Ukraine is turning out to be contradictory: while snowdrifts already cover the high-altitude areas of the Carpathians and morning temperatures drop below zero, residents in the central and southern regions are taking off their jackets and wondering why it feels outside like the second half of September. Vitaliy Postrigan, head of the Cherkasy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology, explained the nature of this phenomenon in a Facebook post: «The anomalous warmth keeping us warm now was transported from the Caspian Lowland by a southern cyclone.» According to his data, over the past weekend, the average daily temperature in the Cherkasy region hovered around +12…+14°C, which is 5°C or more above the climatic norm for this period.

### Southern Cyclone and «Gray Foggy Dampness» Behind Us

The meteorologist specified that the series of southern cyclones that brought heavy precipitation to the region is coming to an end. Between October 16 and 19, Cherkasy region received 14–25 mm of precipitation — amounting to one to two decades' worth of normal rainfall. Postrigan noted that the moisture proved «very timely»: it contributed to the emergence of friendly sprouts in winter crops and reduced the wildfire danger rating in the regional forests. The episode of «gray foggy dampness» that accompanied the cyclonic phase has ended: according to the specialist, «the synoptic situation is restructuring.»

### Anticyclone Gerhard: More Sun and «September» Temperatures

Anticyclone Gerhard is becoming the dominant factor shaping the weather for a long time. According to Postrigan's assessment, it will provide «fair, September-warm weather,» with extra hours of sunshine serving as a pleasant bonus. Preliminary prognostic calculations indicate that until the end of the current week, the influx of Arctic cold into the region will remain blocked. Winds will continue to supply warmed air, but now from the Mediterranean and the Balkans rather than the Caspian Lowland. Thus, in the coming days, Ukrainians will experience steady, dry, and sunny weather without significant precipitation.

### Practical Effect: Postponing the Heating Season and Saving Energy Resources

The specialist emphasized that this weather configuration has direct practical significance for the population and utilities. «Such weather will help save energy resources for heating buildings and will allow us to postpone the start of the heating season a little longer,» Postrigan noted. Under conditions where average daily temperatures remain at the level of the second half of September, the need for centralized heating is minimal, which reduces the load on the energy system during the transitional autumn period.

### Carpathian Contrast: Frost and Snow Against the Backdrop of «September» Warmth

At the same time, October 2026 demonstrates a sharp contrast between regions. On the morning of October 16, air temperature in the high-altitude areas of the Carpathians dropped noticeably below zero, and a significant amount of snow fell on the slopes — a phenomenon that Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center forecasters previously explained as normal for this period in the mountain zone. Thus, two completely different weather regimes are simultaneously operating within the same country: an Arctic invasion in the mountain ranges and Atlantic-Mediterranean warmth in the flatlands. According to meteorologists, this contrast is caused by the complex configuration of pressure systems, in which anticyclone Gerhard holds warm air over the central and southern territories, while cold air masses maintain their influence in the Carpathians.

### What's Next: Forecast Until the End of October

According to data cited in publications by Ukrainian forecasters, for the remaining days of October, the weather in most regions of Ukraine will remain warm and sunny without significant precipitation. Changes in the synoptic picture are expected only at the end of the month, when anticyclone Gerhard may give way to new cyclonic systems. Until that moment, according to preliminary calculations, Arctic cold will not be able to break through to Ukrainian territory, and the anomalously warm weather for October will persist.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Аномальное тепло на 5°С выше нормы: почему погода в Украине местами напоминает сентябрь](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/anomalne-teplo-5-s-vishche-normi-chomu-pogoda-1792489943.html) - Primary source. V. Postrigan's data on +12…+14°C temperatures, anticyclone Gerhard, the blocking of Arctic cold, and the postponement of the heating season.
- [Аномальное тепло накрыло Украину: синоптик рассказал, когда ждать перемен](https://tsn.ua/ru/ukrayina/anomalnoe-teplo-nakrylo-ukrainu-sinoptik-rasskazal-kogda-zhdat-peremen-3193839.html) - Confirms Postrigan's data, adds information on 14–25 mm of precipitation (1–2 decades' norm) for October 16–19 and its impact on winter crops and wildfire danger.
- [Суровые морозы и аномальное тепло: какая зима нас ждет](https://www.nn.ru/text/winter/2026/09/21/76654145/) - Подтверждено по источнику nn.ru
- [Аномальное тепло покинет Свердловскую область: идут первые заморозки](https://fedpress.ru/news/66/incidents/3453217) - Подтверждено по источнику fedpress.ru

## FAQ

### How anomalous is the current October temperature?

According to Vitaliy Postrigan, head of the Cherkasy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology, the average daily temperature over the weekend was +12…+14°C, which is 5°C or more above the climatic norm for October and corresponds to the second half of September.

### What is causing the anomalous warmth?

Warm air was transported to the region by a southern cyclone from the Caspian Lowland. Following the end of the cyclonic phase, anticyclone Gerhard became the dominant factor, providing dry, sunny, and warm weather.

### When is a deterioration in the weather expected?

According to preliminary prognostic calculations, the influx of Arctic cold will remain blocked until the end of the current week. Significant changes in the synoptic picture are expected only at the end of October.

### How does the anomalous warmth affect the heating season?

The meteorologist noted that the warm weather helps save energy resources for heating buildings and allows for postponing the start of the heating season.