--- title: "Education Revolution: Ukraine Links State Orders with Long-Term Labor Market Forecasts for the First Time" description: "Ukraine is changing the rules of the game in education: the state order for 2026–2027 is being formed for the first time based on a 10-year labor market forecast. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ“‰\n\nThe Ministry of Economy forecasts a deficit of 2.6 million specialists by 2036. The main driver of demand is the country's reconstruction and the construction sector, where the need for personnel will double. πŸ—οΈπŸ‘·β€β™‚οΈ" date: 2026-07-15T14:52:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/ukraine-education-revolution-state-order-labor-market-forecast-2026 tags: [ukraine, labor-market, ministry-of-economy, education, daria-marchak] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Education Revolution: Ukraine Links State Orders with Long-Term Labor Market Forecasts for the First Time ![Students in a university lecture hall working on laptops and notes, illustrating the implementation of new educational standards in Ukraine](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/15/ukraina-goszakaz-rynok-truda-2026/ukraina-goszakaz-rynok-truda-2026-1.webp) The personnel training system in Ukraine is undergoing fundamental changes. The Cabinet of Ministers has made a historic decision: for the first time in history, the state is forming an order for specialist training based not on current requests from ministries, but on a long-term forecast of economic needs. This new approach will take effect when forming the state order for the 2026–2027 academic years. As reported by RBC-Ukraine citing the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, this is the first document of its kind in the country, created based on complex economic modeling. Now, the number of state-funded places will be determined with an eye on what personnel the country will need in 10 years or more. ### A Decade of Vision: From Modeling to Reality Daria Marchak, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, emphasized that having a ten-year forecast allows moving away from intuitive decisions to evidence-based planning. "We have a ten-year forecast of labor market needs, which allows us to assess much more accurately exactly which specialists will be needed by the economy in the future, and will also help make the state order more justified and closer to the real needs of the economy," the official noted. It is important to note that the forecast is not a verdict for the education system. When forming the state order, current university capabilities, state policy, and other factors will be taken into account. However, the vector is set: education must become a driver of economic recovery. ### Where the Country is Heading: Figures and Trends The basic scenario of the forecast paints an optimistic picture of employment growth. It is expected that the number of people employed in the economy will increase from 12.9 million in 2025 to 13.6 million in 2030 and reach 14.6 million by 2036. However, the structure of demand will undergo radical changes. According to calculations by the Ministry of Economy, the economy will need about 2.62 million new workers only in the period from 2032 to 2036. The greatest deficit is forecasted in the following areas: - **Construction:** This is the industry with the most dramatic growth in demand. If about 520,000 people are currently employed in it, by 2036 the need may exceed 1.2 million workers. This is a logical consequence of the large-scale restoration of destroyed infrastructure. - **Manufacturing:** A significant increase in the need for personnel for factories and production lines is expected. - **Professional, scientific and technical activities:** A field requiring high qualifications and an innovative approach. Overall, the greatest demand is forecasted for skilled workers, technical specialists, production workers, as well as workers in the trade and services sector. ### Graduates Will Not Be Enough The Ministry of Economy honestly admits: it will not be possible to cover the colossal need for personnel solely through graduates of educational institutions. The education system will not be able to instantly produce millions of new specialists. Therefore, the labor market recovery strategy includes three directions: - Changing the education system and state order to meet the needs of the economy. - Attracting economically inactive population to the labor market. - Creating conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad. ### Transparency and the Future The labor market needs forecast will not remain a static document. In the future, it is planned to update it regularly so that the state order can respond promptly to changes in the economy. In the long term, the results of the forecast will become open to employers, educational institutions, and future applicants, which will allow students to choose professions understanding the real employment prospects. Recall that the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) has already updated the rules for admission to higher education institutions for 2026. Changes will affect regional coefficients, remote exam taking, conditions for applicants from frontline territories, and the distribution of state-funded places. Now, with the emergence of a long-term forecast, these rules acquire a clear economic rationale.