---
title: "From +30 in the east to autumnal +15 in the west: UHMC forecaster gives a detailed weather forecast for Ukraine on September 12–16"
description: "UHMC forecaster Ivan Semylit told RBC-Ukraine about changeable weather in Ukraine on September 12–16: a cyclone from Hungary and Romania will bring rain and thunderstorms, while heat up to +30°C will persist in the east."
date: 2026-09-11T16:04:01.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/ukraine-weather-forecast-september-12-16-cyclone-rain
tags: [weather-ukraine, forecast, cyclone, rain, temperature]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# From +30 in the east to autumnal +15 in the west: UHMC forecaster gives a detailed weather forecast for Ukraine on September 12–16

![Couple with a pink umbrella against a cloudy city skyline — autumn weather in Ukraine per UGMЦ forecast for Sept 12–16](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/11/prognoz-pogody-ukrayina-12-16-sentyabrya-ciklon-dozhdi/prognoz-pogody-ukrayina-12-16-sentyabrya-ciklon-dozhdi-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Changeable weather in Ukraine on September 12–16 is shaped by a cyclone moving from Hungary and Romania toward the east.
- On September 12, rain and thunderstorms are expected in the west and north (daytime +15…+20°C), while +25…+30°C will persist in the east.
- On September 16, an area of high pressure will arrive from the south-west and precipitation will cease across the country.
- A consultative forecast is provided for September 17–20, with periodic rain and no significant temperature changes.

Over the coming days and until the end of next week, Ukraine is expected to experience changeable weather, in which precipitation will be determined by the passage of atmospheric fronts, while temperatures will be shaped by the collision of air masses with different properties. This was explained in a blitz interview for RBC-Ukraine by Ivan Semylit, a forecaster at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center. According to him, the key "driver" of the weather will be a cyclone moving from the territory of Hungary and Romania: it will first shift in a north-easterly direction and then turn to the east. The atmospheric fronts associated with it will separate a cool air mass in the west and north of the country, a somewhat warmer one in the central regions, and the warmest one — first in the south, then in the south-east and east. Under such conditions, air pressure and humidity will undergo noticeable fluctuations, which will create a regional contrast in the weather.

### Saturday, September 12: rain and thunderstorms in the west and north

In the next 24 hours, on September 12, cloudy weather with clear spells and moderate rain, locally intensifying to heavy levels in places and with thunderstorms in some areas, is expected in the west, north, and Vinnytsia Oblast, and during the day — in most of the central regions as well. Overnight temperatures in these regions will be +10…+15°C, while during the day in the west and north — +15…+20°C, which, according to the forecaster, are already "quite autumnal values," whereas in the central regions the air will warm up to +24°C. In all other regions, partly cloudy conditions will persist without precipitation: +13…+18°C overnight and +25…+30°C during the day.

### Sunday and Monday: the cyclone shifts eastward

On Sunday, September 13, the cyclone shaping the weather will continue to move, so moderate rain is expected in most of the central, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts, with local intensification to heavy levels possible during the day in Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts. Overnight temperatures will range between +15…+18°C, dropping to +8…+13°C in the west and north; during the day +18…+24°C is expected, and in the east and south-east — +25…+30°C. On Monday, September 14, the center of the cyclone will be concentrated over the south-east of the country and will move eastward: local brief showers with thunderstorms are expected in most of the central, southern, and Kharkiv oblasts, with overnight temperatures of +8…+13°C and daytime temperatures of +18…+24°C, while it will be warmer in the east and south-east — +13…+18°C overnight and +22…+27°C during the day.

### September 15–16: a new front in the west and weather stabilization

On Tuesday, September 15, residual processes from the departing cyclone will persist in the east, while a new atmospheric front will appear in the west — it is these two baric formations that will shape the day's weather: brief showers with thunderstorms will occur in places on the Left Bank and during the day in the west of the country, with overnight temperatures of +10…+15°C and up to +18°C along the seacoast. On Wednesday, September 16, an area of high atmospheric pressure will spread over Ukraine from the south-west, and weather without precipitation will be established across the entire country, with temperature values close to those of the 15th.

### Consultative forecast for September 17–20 and wind characteristics

Looking at the consultative forecast for September 17–20, the forecaster expects periodically rainy weather with precipitation of varying intensity — in some regions there will be more of it, in others less — while temperature values will not change significantly compared to the previous days. As for the wind, over the next three days it will predominantly come from the north-east at a speed of 5–10 m/s; on September 15 it will shift to a predominantly northerly direction.

### Contradictory data

Different media outlets and forecasters characterize the source and scale of the cooling differently. In his interview with RBC-Ukraine, Ivan Semylit notes that the cyclone is forming over Hungary and Romania, and that the minimum overnight values in the west and north will be +8…+13°C. Meanwhile, in Obozrevatel materials the same period is described through a "Turkish" cyclone capable of bringing cooling down to +6°C and a sharp contrast with daytime +30°C. Thus, two versions coexist in the public space: a moderate regional cooling from the west (the UHMC version) and a harsher "Turkish" cyclone with a deep temperature drop (the version of a number of media outlets). The exact trajectory and intensity of the cyclone, and therefore the actual minimum temperatures, will be clarified as it moves.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [When to expect rain and a drop in temperature: the latest forecast from forecasters](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/koli-chekati-doshchi-ta-znizhennya-temperaturi-1789142113.html) - Первичный источник: блиц-интервью синоптика УГМЦ Ивана Семилита с подневными цифрами на 12–16 сентября и консультативным прогнозом на 17–20 сентября.
- [From +30 to +6, rain and cool nights: how the "Turkish" cyclone will affect the weather in Ukraine and when ...](https://www.obozrevatel.com/novosti-obschestvo/turetskij-tsiklon-i-6-sinoptik-predupredil-o-nestabilnoj-pogode-v-ukraine.htm) - Альтернативная подача: «турецкий» циклон и похолодание до +6°С; расхождение с версией УГМЦ по источнику циклона и минимальной температуре отражено в статье.
- [When will the cooling end: a forecaster answered whether new heat is heading to Ukraine and gave a forecast for ...](https://www.obozrevatel.com/novosti-obschestvo/snova-zhara-ili-poholodanie-sinoptik-udivil-prognozom-pogodyi.htm) - Альтернативная подача: «турецкий» циклон и похолодание до +6°С; расхождение с версией УГМЦ по источнику циклона и минимальной температуре отражено в статье.
- [Summer readings and rain with thunderstorms: the weather forecast in Ukraine for 10 days](https://fakty.com.ua/ru/ukraine/20260829-litni-pokazniki-ta-doshhi-z-grozami-prognoz-pogodi-v-ukrayini-na-10-dniv/) - Контекстный источник, подтверждающий общий тренд: сочетание летних показателей на части территории и дождей с грозами.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: When will rain and thunderstorms occur in Ukraine?
**A:** According to the UHMC forecast, rain with thunderstorms in places is expected on September 12 in the west and north, on the 13th in the central, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts, on the 14th in the central, southern, and Kharkiv oblasts, and on the 15th on the Left Bank and in the west. On September 16, precipitation will cease.

### Q: What temperatures are expected in Ukraine on September 12–16?
**A:** The contrast will be regional: in the west and north daytime temperatures of +15…+20°C with overnight lows of +8…+13°C, in the center up to +24°C during the day, and in the east and south-east +25…+30°C during the day and +13…+18°C overnight will persist.

### Q: What will the weather be like on September 17–20?
**A:** For this period only a consultative forecast is provided: periodic rain of varying intensity, with no significant temperature changes compared to the previous days; the wind will be predominantly northerly.