--- title: "Pessimism and Resilience: Ukrainians Do Not Believe the War Will End by 2026, But Do Not Acknowledge Russian Superiority" description: "πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ KIIS: Only 22% of Ukrainians believe the war will end by the end of 2026. The majority expects a protracted conflict until 2027+. πŸ“‰ Pessimism on timelines, but optimism on strength: 39% believe the advantage lies with Ukraine, only 7% with the RF. πŸ›‘οΈ Trust Ratings: The Army and intelligence services (Zaluzhny, Budanov) outpace Zelenskyy. 🚫 Donbas: 60% of Ukrainians are categorically against ceding territory to Russia. #Ukraine #War #KIIS #Opinions" date: 2026-08-10T14:34:01.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/ukrainians-dont-expect-war-end-by-2026-kmis-poll-en tags: [ukraine-war, kmis, polling, public-opinion, zelensky, russia-ukraine-conflict] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Pessimism and Resilience: Ukrainians Do Not Believe the War Will End by 2026, But Do Not Acknowledge Russian Superiority ![Silhouettes of people with Ukrainian flags against a sunset, symbolizing the resilience and hope of Ukrainians amidst the war](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/10/ukrainians-dont-expect-war-end-by-2026-kmis-poll/ukrainians-dont-expect-war-end-by-2026-kmis-poll-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - Only 22% of Ukrainians expect the war to end by the end of 2026. - 39% of citizens believe that the advantage on the battlefield currently lies with Ukraine. - Highest levels of trust are held by military leaders: Zaluzhny (66%), Fedorov (63%), Budanov (61%). - 60% of Ukrainians are categorically against ceding the Donbas to Russia in exchange for security. ### Realistic Pessimism: Ukrainians Do Not Expect the War to End in 2026 In August 2026, Ukrainian society demonstrates a high degree of strategic pessimism regarding the timeline for ending the conflict. According to recent data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), published by RBK-Ukraine, only one in five residents of the country (22%) believes that hostilities could cease before the end of the current year. This indicates that the population has long stopped focusing on scenarios of a "quick peace" and has adapted to a prolonged phase of confrontation. The majority of respondents (39%) expect the war to last at least until the second half of 2027 or even longer. Another 13% of citizens consider the first half of next year a likely timeframe for the end of hostilities. A significant portion of society (26%) could not provide a clear forecast, indicating that uncertainty and anxiety remain prevalent. ### Balance of Power: Ukrainians Do Not Acknowledge Russian Advantage Despite pessimistic forecasts regarding the timeline, Ukrainians remain confident that Russia does not have a decisive advantage on the battlefield. The poll showed that only 7% of respondents believe the situation favors the Russian Federation. Conversely, 39% of citizens are convinced that the advantage currently lies with Ukraine. This is an important indicator of morale: even while expecting a protracted conflict, society is not inclined toward capitulationist sentiments and does not recognize the enemy's military power as insurmountable. A significant share of respondents (32%) sees the situation as a stalemate where neither side has a clear advantage. This confirms the thesis that the conflict has entered a phase of positional warfare, where the outcome depends on factors not always obvious to the civilian population. ### Leaders of Trust: The Army Above Politics Under conditions of a protracted conflict, the hierarchy of trust in public figures in Ukraine has undergone significant changes. Representatives of the military and defense sectors, whose competence and determination are valued by society higher than that of politicians, are at the top of the ratings. 66% of Ukrainians trust Valeriy Zaluzhny, 63% trust Mykhailo Fedorov, and 61% trust Kyrylo Budanov. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes fourth place with a trust rating of 56%. This distribution of power reflects society's demand for professionalism and efficiency in security matters. In conditions where war has become a daily reality, citizens tend to trust those who are directly responsible for the country's defense and results on the front lines. ### Red Lines: Refusal to Cede the Donbas The issue of territorial concessions remains one of the most painful for Ukrainian society. According to preliminary poll data, six out of ten Ukrainians (60%) consider the transfer of the entire Donbas under Russian control categorically unacceptable, even in exchange for security guarantees. This indicates that territorial integrity remains a key priority for the majority of citizens. Only 33% of respondents are ready to take such a step. Notably, compared to April of the current year, the share of those who allow for such a scenario has decreased. This may indicate that society is becoming less inclined toward compromises that are perceived as an infringement on national interests. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: When, according to Ukrainians, will the war end? **A:** Only 22% of Ukrainians expect the war to end by the end of 2026. 39% believe the conflict will last until the second half of 2027 or later. ### Q: Who do Ukrainians trust the most? **A:** The highest level of trust is held by military leaders: Valeriy Zaluzhny (66%), Mykhailo Fedorov (63%), Kyrylo Budanov (61%). President Zelenskyy is at 56%. ### Q: Are Ukrainians willing to cede the Donbas to Russia? **A:** 60% of Ukrainians consider the transfer of the Donbas to Russia categorically unacceptable. Only 33% of respondents are willing to take such a step.