---
title: "Ukrzaliznytsia on the Brink of an Antirecord: Freight Base Melts by 60% While Tariffs Rise"
description: "Ukrzaliznytsia's freight traffic in 2026 may fall below 130 million tons — nearly 60% down from the pre-war level. A new 15% tariff hike threatens to accelerate enterprise closures."
date: 2026-10-28T15:09:34.127Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/ukrzaliznytsia-freight-base-antirecord-tariffs-2026
tags: [ukrzaliznytsia, freight-transport, tariffs, ukraine-economy, logistics, industrial-production]
author: "Darya Fomina"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Ukrzaliznytsia on the Brink of an Antirecord: Freight Base Melts by 60% While Tariffs Rise

![Blue Ukrzaliznytsia freight car parked at a railway station](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/28/ukrzaliznytsia-gruzovaya-baza-antirekord-tarify-2026/ukrzaliznytsia-gruzovaya-baza-antirekord-tarify-2026-1.webp)

## Key Points

- Ukrzaliznytsia freight transport in 2026 may drop below 130 million tons versus 314 million tons in 2021 — a loss of nearly 60% of the base
- Tariffs rose by 30% on August 1, 2026, with another +15% announced for 2027
- 70–80 million tons lost due to enterprise occupation and destruction, plus another 90–100 million due to production halts
- Over 20,000 railcars queue at western borders against a throughput capacity of 1,050–1,150 cars per day
- CTS suggests funding the passenger segment from the budget and attracting international grants instead of raising tariffs

The year 2026 risks becoming an antirecord year for Ukrzaliznytsia in terms of freight traffic volume. According to an estimate by the Center for Transport Strategies (CTS), the annual figure could drop below 130 million tons, compared to 314 million tons in 2021. This implies a loss of nearly 60% of the pre-war freight base, which has traditionally been the company's main source of revenue. As the publication notes, Ukrzaliznytsia itself acknowledges that the decline in traffic volumes has effectively neutralized the effect of the tariff increase that came into effect on August 1, 2026.

### The Tariff Spiral: +30% in 2026 and Another +15% in 2027

Starting August 1, 2026, Ukrzaliznytsia's freight tariffs rose by 30%. In dollar terms, they are already more than double the 2021 level. However, this did not yield the expected financial effect: the contraction in transport volumes completely absorbed the revenue gain from the price hike. Meanwhile, another increase of 15% has already been announced for 2027. The problem, as CTS emphasizes, is that each successive increase in the tariff burden makes a portion of production and exports economically unviable: enterprises curtail shipments or shut down, the railway loses cargo and revenues, and then attempts to compensate through further tariff hikes. The metallurgical industry has previously warned that further increases could accelerate the drop in traffic and worsen the company's own financial standing.

### Where 180 Million Tons Were Lost: Occupation, Strikes, and Plant Shutdowns

The freight base contracted most severely due to the industrial sector. About 70–80 million tons were lost due to the destruction and occupation of enterprises in the country's east and south. Another 90–100 million tons are attributed to enterprises that shut down or significantly reduced production due to infrastructure strikes, expensive energy, logistics disruptions, and the loss of sales markets. The situation is exacerbated by the blockade of sea ports: exporting via the western border costs 2 to 3 times more than pre-war logistics. More than 20,000 railcars are currently queuing at approaches to border crossings, while actual daily handovers stand at approximately 1,050–1,150 cars per day. Enterprises are simultaneously paying a 30% higher tariff and incurring additional costs from significantly longer routes.

### Ukrzaliznytsia's Wartime Losses and the Question of Burden-Sharing Fairness

The material notes that Ukrzaliznytsia's own wartime losses are also substantial: locomotives, tracks, bridges, and traction substations have been damaged. However, as CTS emphasizes, business is not the cause of these losses, so transferring their entire burden onto freight shippers through tariffs is unfair. If this policy continues, some enterprises may simply not survive until post-war recovery. Consequently, the railway will lose precisely those clients who should have restored its freight and revenue base in the future.

### Alternatives: Budget Support, Donors, and Optimization Instead of New Invoices

According to CTS, alternatives to a new tariff hike should include other mechanisms. First and foremost is the optimization of Ukrzaliznytsia's own costs and infrastructure. Separately, it is proposed to fully finance loss-making suburban and passenger transport from the state budget rather than at the expense of the freight segment. For suburban transport alone in the 2027 budget, calculations show an additional requirement of about UAH 10 billion on top of the already allocated UAH 16.1 billion for long-distance passenger traffic. Another key solution should be systemic international support for Ukrzaliznytsia during the war: grants, concessional loans, and donor programs to restore infrastructure, rolling stock, and energy resilience. ICC Ukraine previously called for freezing freight tariffs until the end of martial law. The logic, as CTS frames it, is simple: if financial problems are caused by war, port blockades, and infrastructure destruction, they should be compensated through state and international support rather than by issuing new invoices to enterprises that are still managing to operate.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- ["Укрзализныця" готовит +15% к тарифам на грузы: к чему приведет новая волна подорожания](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/ukrzaliznitsya-gotue-15-tarifiv-vantazhi-1793194609.html) - Все ключевые цифры (130 млн тонн, 314 млн тонн, +30% с 01.08.2026, +15% на 2027, 70–80 и 90–100 млн тонн потерь, 20 тыс. вагонов в очередях, 10 млрд грн на пригородные) взяты непосредственно из текста источника.

## FAQ

### What freight traffic volume is expected for Ukrzaliznytsia in 2026?

According to the Center for Transport Strategies, the annual volume could drop below 130 million tons compared to 314 million tons in 2021, representing a loss of nearly 60% of the pre-war freight base.

### How much did Ukrzaliznytsia's freight tariffs increase in 2026, and what is planned for 2027?

Tariffs increased by 30% starting August 1, 2026. An additional 15% hike has been announced for 2027.

### What are the main reasons for the decline in the freight base?

The war, occupation of industrial regions in the east and south, blockade of sea ports, strikes against enterprises and infrastructure, and a sharp increase in the cost of rail logistics.

### What alternatives to tariff increases does CTS propose?

Optimization of Ukrzaliznytsia's costs and infrastructure, full state budget funding for suburban and passenger transport, and systematic international support through grants, concessional loans, and donor programs.