---
title: "US Midterm Elections: A Test for Trump and Risks for Ukraine"
description: "On November 3, the US holds midterm congressional elections: Trump's Republicans must defend a slim majority amid record fuel prices and a conflict with Kyiv. The vote's outcome will shape Washington's future policy on Ukraine."
date: 2026-11-03T06:05:25.794Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/us-midterm-elections-trump-test-ukraine-risks
tags: [us-midterms, trump, congress, ukraine, republicans, democrats]
author: "Alexander Buran, Marina Slivenko"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# US Midterm Elections: A Test for Trump and Risks for Ukraine

![Donald Trump against the backdrop of the US Capitol in Washington ahead of the midterm elections](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/03/promezhutochnye-vyibory-v-ssha-ekzamen-dlya-trampa-i-riski-dlya-ukrainy/promezhutochnye-vyibory-v-ssha-ekzamen-dlya-trampa-i-riski-dlya-ukrainy-1.webp)

## Key Points

- On November 3, the US elects 35 senators, 435 representatives, and 35 governors; Republicans hold a slim majority in both chambers (218:214 in the House, 53:47 in the Senate).
- Historically, the incumbent president's party loses an average of about 25 seats in the House during midterms.
- Record fuel price surges (diesel exceeding $6 a gallon in September) dealt the primary blow to Republican standings.
- Trump's conflict with Zelenskyy over the "diesel deal" and refinery strikes creates risks for intelligence and military aid to Ukraine.

On November 3, the United States is holding midterm congressional elections—a crucial vote that will determine how much power Republicans and Donald Trump personally will lose. The president's name is not on the ballot, but over recent months he has actively toured the country and spoken at rallies, effectively campaigning in support of his party's candidates. At stake is not only the balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Senate, but also Washington's future course on Ukraine, which directly depends on whether Republicans manage to retain control of the legislative branch.

### What is at Stake: Congressional Structure and Current Balance

As in any democratic country, the US operates under a separation of powers: the president heads the executive branch, but laws are passed solely by Congress, which distributes the federal budget, oversees the government through hearings and committees, and confirms cabinet appointments. The lower chamber—the House of Representatives—consists of 435 members elected for two-year terms from single-member districts; Republicans currently hold a slim majority of 218 seats to Democrats' 214. The upper chamber—the Senate—has 100 senators (two from each state regardless of population) elected to six-year terms; 35 of them are up for re-election this year. Currently, the Senate features 53 Republicans and 47 senators in the Democratic caucus (45 Democrats and two independents—Bernie Sanders and Angus King). To shift the balance, Democrats need to win at least four seats; in a 50-50 tie, the deciding vote belongs to Vice President JD Vance. Additionally, 35 governors are being elected on this day, whose decisions could prove decisive in the 2028 presidential election.

### Why the President's Party Almost Always Loses

American politics has a well-established pattern: in midterm elections, the incumbent president's party loses an average of about 25 seats in the House of Representatives, and this rule has failed only twice in history. This time, voters' habit of maintaining a balance between parties is compounded by Trump's own missteps. The main blow to Republican positions came from soaring fuel prices, which skyrocketed following the outbreak of war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: in September, diesel prices exceeded six dollars per gallon—an all-time high. Since motor transport forms the backbone of US logistics, rising fuel prices automatically pulled up the cost of most goods, undermining the president's key campaign promise. The pledge to end the Russia-Ukraine war "in 24 hours" remained unfulfilled, and inflation continues to break records.

### The Diesel Deal and Conflict with Kyiv

Seeking to prevent a rout of his party, Trump leveraged the fuel price issue during the campaign by criticizing Ukraine and pointing to the so-called "diesel deal" with Vladimir Putin—an agreement to purchase millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel. First Lady Melania Trump also de facto joined the campaign, publicly leading a humanitarian initiative in Oleshky. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the US president has repeatedly linked the rise in energy costs to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly disagreed with this stance, calling the deal a "gift to Putin." Politico warns that Kyiv's sharp reaction could bring tangible consequences: Washington could suspend intelligence sharing, restrict Starlink, and limit weapons procurements, while Royal United Services Institute expert Tim Willasey-Wilsey calls a "wounded Trump" a real threat to Kyiv.

### What Scenarios are Emerging for Ukraine

The election outcome will determine whether the Trump administration can fully advance its foreign policy course. If Republicans retain control of both chambers, the president will retain room for maneuver regarding new agreements with Moscow and pressure on Kyiv, including a potential reduction in intelligence and military support. Should Democrats win back at least some seats and gain control of one of the chambers, oversight committees could limit executive branch authority and slow down any concessions on the Ukrainian issue. For Ukraine, the stability of intelligence-sharing channels and weapons supply lines remains critical, which, according to Western publications, are already under threat amid deteriorating relations between Washington and Kyiv.

Thus, on November 3, Americans are voting not only on the composition of Congress, but also on what the vector of US foreign policy will be over the next two years—and, consequently, the volume of support Kyiv can count on amid the ongoing conflict.

## Accounts differ

### Causes of Record Fuel Price Surges in the US

- **RBC-Ukraine (analysis):** The rise in fuel prices is tied to the outbreak of war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; in September, diesel exceeded $6 per gallon. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/ispit-trampa-ta-riziki-ukrayini-k-vibori-1793633641.html))
- **Donald Trump:** The increase in energy costs was caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. ([glavred.info](https://glavred.info/ukraine/konflikt-trampa-s-zelenskim-sozdaet-sereznye-riski-dlya-ukrainy-reuters-10804958.html))

*Where they agree:* Fuel prices in the US reached record levels ahead of the midterm congressional elections.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Экзамен для Трампа и риски для Украины: как выборы в Конгресс изменят баланс сил в США](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/ispit-trampa-ta-riziki-ukrayini-k-vibori-1793633641.html) - Primary source: election date, Congressional structure, seat breakdown (218:214, 53:47), historical loss trends, fuel prices following the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- [Конфликт Трампа с Зеленским создает серьезные риски для Украины – Reuters](https://glavred.info/ukraine/konflikt-trampa-s-zelenskim-sozdaet-sereznye-riski-dlya-ukrainy-reuters-10804958.html) - Reuters: Trump links energy cost spikes to Ukrainian refinery strikes; Zelenskyy publicly disagrees; risks of intelligence aid cuts.
- ["Раненый Трамп" опасен для Киева: каковы риски для Зеленского после ссоры с США](https://focus.ua/politics/770999-ssora-trampa-i-zelenskogo-chem-eto-grozit-ukraine) - Politico: the "diesel deal", Zelenskyy's statements calling it a "gift to Putin", potential consequences (intelligence, Starlink, weapons); Tim Willasey-Wilsey's assessment.
- [Politico рассказало о дилемме Киева после сделки Путина и Трампа](https://www.rbc.ru/politics/13/10/2026/6ace2fd6df92d56913b9a6f6) - Politico: Kyiv's dilemma following the deal; risk of escalating tensions if Washington's demands are refused.

## FAQ

### What exactly are Americans voting for on November 3?

Midterm elections are taking place: 35 senators, 435 House representatives, and 35 governors are up for re-election. Control over the legislative branch is at stake.

### How many seats do Democrats need to flip the Senate?

Democrats (including independents) need to win at least 4 seats to secure a majority. In a 50-50 tie, the deciding vote belongs to Vice President JD Vance.

### What risks do these elections pose for Ukraine?

According to Reuters and Politico, if Republicans retain control, it could open room for new deals with Moscow and pressure on Kyiv, including potential cuts to intelligence and military support; the conflict over the "diesel deal" already heightens these risks.