---
title: "Wheat prices jump 36%: how war, drought and rising fertilizer costs are hitting global food prices"
description: "Oxford Economics forecasts an 11.8% rise in global food prices in 2026: wheat could become 36% more expensive amid strikes in the Black Sea, drought and rising fertilizer and diesel prices."
date: 2026-08-24T23:52:08.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/wheat-and-food-prices-2026-en
tags: [wheat-prices, food-inflation, black-sea, grain-export, drought, oxford-economics]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Wheat prices jump 36%: how war, drought and rising fertilizer costs are hitting global food prices

![Harvester cutting wheat in a field amid rising global grain prices](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/25/tseny-na-pshenitsu-i-prodovolstvie-2026/tseny-na-pshenitsu-i-prodovolstvie-2026-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Oxford Economics forecasts an 11.8% rise in global food prices in 2026 and a further 4.8% in 2027, with wheat potentially up 36% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026.
- Around 86 million tonnes of Russian and Ukrainian grain exports (nearly 17% of the world total) are at risk due to strikes in the Black and Sea of Azov.
- Drought is cutting yields: Coceral has lowered its production forecast for the EU and the UK to 286.6 million tonnes, and the US may see its lowest wheat harvest since 1970.
- Diesel rose 36% year-on-year in July, and fertilizers are expected to jump 22% due to the conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Because of a 6–9 month lag, higher bread and pasta prices may hit retail from the start of 2027; Egypt and Bangladesh are especially vulnerable.

Wheat is a staple of the diet of billions of people: it is used to make bread, instant noodles, chapati and dozens of other products. In 2026, this crop is under simultaneous pressure from several factors: war, drought, rising production costs and the complication of transport routes. According to Oxford Economics forecasts, global food prices will rise by 11.8% this year and by a further 4.8% in 2027, with wheat potentially increasing by 36% year-on-year in the third quarter of the current year.

### The Black Sea as a chokepoint in global trade

Russia and Ukraine supply almost 30% of the world's wheat exports, so strikes on ports, vessels and export facilities in the Black and Sea of Azov quickly ripple through international markets. According to Oxford Economics estimates, around 86 million tonnes of the two countries' annual grain exports are at risk — nearly 17% of global grain exports. Switching to alternative routes is difficult: drought is lowering water levels in the Danube and reducing vessel tonnage, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are forcing ships to go around South Africa, and drought on the Rhine and the El Niño phenomenon are raising the risk of low water levels in the Panama Canal.

### Drought hits yields in key regions

Hot weather and moisture shortages have already led to lower yields in many grain-growing regions. The European grain trade association Coceral has cut its forecast for grain production in the EU and the UK to 286.6 million tonnes, down from 310 million tonnes in 2025. Germany expects production to fall by 7%, and the US may record its lowest wheat harvest since 1970.

### Rising costs: fuel and fertilizers

Farmers are facing higher input costs. According to Oxford Economics, global diesel prices rose by 36% year-on-year in July, while fertilizer prices are forecast to increase by 22% amid the conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are hitting oil, gas and fertilizer-raw-material supplies. Under such conditions, high wheat prices do not guarantee higher profits for producers: some farmers may cut investment in the next harvest, which would prolong supply problems into 2027, while a strengthening El Niño would further complicate the outlook.

### Who will be hit hardest and when will it show up on shelves

Last year's record harvest kept global stocks at a relatively high level and minimized the risk of an acute shortage, but it did not stop prices from rising: soft red wheat in the US became almost 25% more expensive in the first seven months, and according to FAO data, global grain prices in July were 6.9% higher than a year earlier. Fluctuations in raw-material prices usually show up in retail after a 6–9 month lag, so bread, pasta and other wheat-based products could become noticeably more expensive from the start of 2027. Import-dependent economies are especially vulnerable: Egypt buys most of its wheat abroad from Russia and Ukraine, while Bangladesh risks being forced to buy US wheat at higher prices after committing to increase imports to avoid Washington's tariffs.

### Contradictory data

Analysts' assessments differ on the depth and timing of the impact. On the one hand, Oxford Economics and the FAO are already recording realized price increases (grain in July +6.9% year-on-year, US wheat +25% over seven months) and forecast a further spike in wheat to +36% in the third quarter. On the other hand, some analysts note that the market has not yet fully priced in the potential for a prolonged confrontation in the Black Sea, and last year's high stocks are acting as a buffer against shortages. Thus, some data suggest that the rise is already underway, while others indicate that the peak could be higher and later, depending on the dynamics of strikes on ports and on weather conditions.

The bottom line is this: last year's stocks give the market a temporary reprieve, but it is the development of the situation in the Black Sea, weather conditions and production costs that will determine how long this buffer lasts and how significant the blow to the food basket will be in 2027.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Food prices are rising due to global food-delivery problems.](https://www.vietnam.vn/ru/bua-an-dat-do-hon-tu-nhung-nut-that-toan-cau) - Подтверждает глобальный рост цен на еду из-за проблем с доставкой, согласуется с тезисом об усложнении транспортных маршрутов.
- [Global food prices in 2026 could rise by double-digit figures](https://knews.kg/2026/08/19/globalnye-tseny-na-prodovolstvie-v-2026-godu-mogut-vyrasti-na-dvuznachnye-velichiny/) - Совпадает с прогнозом Oxford Economics о росте на 11,8% в 2026 году (двузначные величины).
- [A strike on the Black Sea and European heat. How much will the global food basket become more expensive](https://biz.nv.ua/economics/pochemu-v-2026-godu-mirovye-ceny-na-prodovolstvie-i-hleb-stremitelno-vyrastut-iz-za-voyn-i-zasuhi-50634768.html) - Подтверждает связь ударов в Черном море, европейской жары/засухи с ростом цен на продовольствие.
- [The rise in global food prices in July was 0.6%](https://www.finmarket.ru/news/6681513) - Месячный рост 0,6% в июле согласуется с данными ФАО о +6,9% в годовом исчислении; разные метрики, противоречий нет.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: How much will global food prices rise in 2026?
**A:** According to Oxford Economics forecasts, by 11.8% in 2026 and a further 4.8% in 2027; wheat prices in the third quarter of 2026 could rise by 36% year-on-year.

### Q: Why is wheat rising in price the most?
**A:** Because Russia and Ukraine supply almost 30% of the world's wheat exports, and strikes on ports and vessels in the Black and Sea of Azov put around 86 million tonnes of exports — nearly 17% of the global volume — at risk.

### Q: When will the price rise show up in bread and pasta?
**A:** Fluctuations in raw-material prices usually appear in retail after a 6–9 month lag, so a noticeable price increase in wheat-based products is possible from the start of 2027.

### Q: Why don't high wheat prices always increase farmers' profits?
**A:** Because of rising diesel prices (+36% year-on-year in July), fertilizers (+22% forecast), credit and transport costs: production costs are growing faster than revenue.