---
title: "\"12,000 missiles passed unnoticed\": 'Raid' military expert explains why Russia is not increasing missile strikes"
description: "'Raid' 413th Regiment serviceman Ivan Kyrychevskyi explained in an RBC-Ukraine podcast why Russia is not increasing the number of missile strikes: successes of Ukrainian air defense with S-300, transition to psychological effect, losses of the navy and strategic aviation, and strikes on the Russian missile industry in 2026."
date: 2026-10-29T10:01:24.023Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/why-russia-is-not-increasing-missile-strikes
tags: [russia, rockets, air-defense, s-300, strategic-aviation, black-sea-fleet, ukraine-war, geran-5, x-101]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# "12,000 missiles passed unnoticed": 'Raid' military expert explains why Russia is not increasing missile strikes

![Military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi in the studio at a microphone discussing Russian missile strikes](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/29/pochemu-rossiya-ne-uvelichivaet-chislo-raketnyh-udarov/pochemu-rossiya-ne-uvelichivaet-chislo-raketnyh-udarov-1.webp)

## Key Points

- The total number of Russian missiles of all types used has exceeded 12,000, but the growth of launches has stopped at a plateau
- Ukraine has become the first country to massively shoot down cruise missiles using Soviet S-300 and S-125 air defense systems
- Russia switched to a strategy of psychological effect: out of ten missiles nine are shot down, but attention is focused on a single hit
- The Black Sea Fleet is paralyzed, the Caspian Fleet has no strategic value; out of 60 Tu-95MS before the war, 38 remain capable of flight
- Strikes on the 'Kremny El' plant in March and autumn 2026 disrupted the 'Izdelie 30' project, forcing Russia to scale up 'Geran-5'
- The expert suggested that Russia is preparing resources for a potential conflict with NATO and could have obtained technologies of the 'Banderol' drone

The number of Russian missiles used since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, according to Defense Express arms expert and serviceman of the 413th Unmanned Systems Forces Regiment 'Raid' Ivan Kyrychevskyi, has long exceeded the mark of 12,000 units of all types. At the same time, the growth in the number of launches has stopped at a plateau, and according to the speaker, there are several systemic reasons for this. He spoke about this in the RBC-Ukraine podcast 'TSE BAZA', released in October 2026.

### Ukrainian air defense based on S-300: 'defying the laws of physics'

The first and, according to Kyrychevskyi, key reason for the stagnation of missile launches is the success of the Ukrainian air defense system, built primarily on Soviet anti-aircraft missile systems. Ukraine, he said, has become the first country in the world to learn how to shoot down air targets on an industrial scale using Soviet-era SAM systems: the S-125 was adapted to intercept cruise missiles, and the S-300 to engage subsonic targets. The expert recalled that before February 2022, S-300 systems were used in very few conflicts and nowhere demonstrated the ability to effectively hit cruise missiles. As examples, he cited the raid on the facilities of the Assad regime in Syria in 2017 and the Karabakh war in 2020, where, according to him, not a single cruise missile was shot down. Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners, in Kyrychevskyi's assessment, effectively 'defied the laws of physics' by teaching the S-300 to intercept subsonic cruise missiles in large quantities.

### Psychological effect instead of accuracy

The second reason, the expert said, is the conclusions that the Russian command drew back in 2023 based on its own failures. According to him, in the plans of the Russian Ministry of Defense, all missiles were supposed to hit targets with 100% accuracy, and the department's reports recorded just that, but reality was different. As a result, Russia relied on the psychological effect of strikes: when out of ten launched missiles nine are shot down, it goes unnoticed, but a single hit is discussed on all channels, analyzing business losses and civilian casualties. Kyrychevskyi called this approach 'a cunning, malicious calculation that has certain grounds', emphasizing that it works precisely due to the massive use of air defense, which hides the scale of losses of the attacking side.

### Navy and strategic aviation: uncompensated losses

Separately, the expert dwelled on the state of the Russian Navy and strategic aviation. Thanks to marine drones and cruise missiles, including drone-missiles, the freedom of action of the Black Sea Fleet, in his assessment, has been paralyzed. Russia had to move part of its forces to the Caspian Sea, which Kyrychevskyi called a 'local naval catastrophe': the fleet concentrated in the Caspian, he said, has zero combat power in a strategic sense. As for strategic aviation, by the beginning of the full-scale invasion, according to the expert, Russia had about 60 Tu-95MS bombers. As of October 2026, 46 machines remain on paper, and 38 are capable of flight, and this does not mean that all of them are ready for takeoff simultaneously.

### 2026 — the year of strikes on Russia's missile industry

Kyrychevskyi emphasized that 2026 has become a year of active and massive strikes on the Russian missile industry for Ukraine. He spoke about the Russian project of a mass cruise missile for strategic aviation — 'Izdelie 30' — as well as the idea of a local upgrade of the Su-34: attaching a pylon for suspending the Kh-101, similar to the one installed on the Tu-95MS, to compensate for losses after Operation 'Spiderweb'. The first strike on the 'Kremny El' plant, where, according to the expert, work on 'Izdelie 30' was underway, was carried out in March 2026 with corrections by Bryansk operators of his regiment. The Defense Forces delivered a secondary strike in the autumn, obviously to keep the plant in ruins. As a result, according to Kyrychevskyi, 'Izdelie 30' was never implemented in mass production.

### 'Gerans' instead of Kh-101 and preparation for conflict with NATO

Due to the impossibility of massively using cruise missiles, Russia was forced to scale up the production of jet drones. Kyrychevskyi drew a comparison: the warhead of the 'Geran-5' is 90 kg, a standard Kh-101 is 500 kg, and a missile with a dual warhead is 800 kg. In his assessment, one modernized Kh-101 would cause damage comparable to ten 'Geran-5s', but the resource of bombers is not limitless, so they had to bet on ten drones instead of one missile. The expert also suggested that Russia, given an appropriate political decision, expects to fight NATO 'the old-fashioned way' — with tank columns, massive use of aviation, and rapid seizure of air supremacy. Against the background of falling resources, in his opinion, Moscow may preserve it for a potential conflict with the alliance. In addition, Kyrychevskyi put forward a hypothesis that Russia acquired or stole technologies of the Ukrainian 'Banderol' drone, which, together with the 'Dan-T', should be considered small-sized cruise missiles with a takeoff weight of 260 kg, of which 130 kg accounts for the warhead.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Почему Россия не увеличивает количество ракет: военный "Рейд" назвал причины](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chomu-rosiya-zbilshue-kilkist-raket-viyskoviy-1793267466.html) - Интервью реально проведено в подкасте РБК-Украина «ЦЕ БАЗА». Все числовые данные (12 000 ракет, 60→46→38 Ту-95МС, 90/500/800 кг БЧ, 260 кг «Бандероли») — экспертные оценки Ивана Киричевского, не подтверждённые вторым независимым источником в рамках данной публикации.

## FAQ

### How many total missiles has Russia used since the start of the invasion according to the expert?

According to Ivan Kyrychevskyi, the total number of missiles of all types used by Russia has long exceeded 12,000 units. He noted that this milestone was passed 'unnoticed'.

### Why, according to the expert, has Ukrainian air defense become effective?

Kyrychevskyi explains this by the fact that Ukraine was the first in the world to learn how to massively shoot down air targets using Soviet SAM systems: the S-125 was adapted to intercept cruise missiles, and the S-300 to engage subsonic targets, which had not been demonstrated in any previous conflict.

### What happened to the 'Kremny El' plant in 2026?

According to the expert, the first strike on the plant was carried out in March 2026 with corrections by operators of the 413th regiment, and a second strike in autumn. As a result, the 'Izdelie 30' project (a mass cruise missile for strategic aviation) was not implemented, and the plant was kept in ruins.

### How many Tu-95MS bombers did Russia have left by October 2026?

According to Kyrychevskyi's assessment, by the beginning of the full-scale invasion there were about 60 Tu-95MS bombers. By October 2026, 46 remained on paper, and 38 were capable of flight, which does not guarantee the simultaneous takeoff of all aircraft.