--- title: "Window of Opportunity: Why Russia May Exploit Its Drone Advantage Until 2029" description: "The Commander of the Latvian Armed Forces warned that Russia may exploit its advantage in mass drone production until the end of 2028, while NATO completes its rearmament. General Kaspars Pūdāns called this period potentially dangerous and urged preparation for hybrid threats starting today. 🇷🇺🚁🇪🇺" date: 2026-06-04T07:26:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/window-of-opportunity-russia-drone-advantage-until-2029 tags: [] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Window of Opportunity: Why Russia May Exploit Its Drone Advantage Until 2029 ![Russian female soldier in camouflage with a rifle in front of armored vehicles, illustrating military strength and preparation for drone use until 2029](https://xab.info/media/2026/06/04/rossiya-drony-preimuschestvo-do-2029-goda/rossiya-drony-preimuschestvo-do-2029-goda-1.webp) Russia holds a temporary but critically important advantage in the production and deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles, which could persist until the end of 2028. This was stated by the Commander of the Latvian Armed Forces, General Kaspars Pūdāns, in an interview with Financial Times, as cited by RBK-Ukraine. According to the General, while Moscow does not yet surpass NATO countries in the quality of individual equipment samples, it wins in scalability. The Russian industry is capable of quickly adapting technologies and producing drones in huge quantities, allowing for constant replenishment of stocks. ### A Dangerous Timeframe Kaspars Pūdāns pointed out that most modernization programs for the armies of Alliance countries will only come into full force by 2029. It is precisely the period before this time that the General considers most vulnerable for the West. «If I were in the Kremlin, I would say that if we are to do anything, we must do it before the end of 2028», — noted the Commander. He emphasized that this window of opportunity is due to the fact that Russia has already conducted thousands of combat experiments in Ukraine, refining tactics and technologies in practice. ### Uncertainty and Lack of Experience Aside from the technological factor, there are political reasons that could push Moscow to take active action ahead of schedule. A high-ranking official from the defense department of one of the NATO countries, whose opinion is also cited by the publication, highlighted two key factors: - Uncertainty regarding US foreign policy following the possible return to power of Donald Trump. - The growth of defense budgets in European countries, which is gradually shifting the balance of power. While both sides of the conflict in Ukraine use thousands of drones daily, NATO forces still significantly lag behind in combat experience. This was confirmed by recent British Army exercises simulating a war in Estonia: commanders predicted that allies' drone stocks would run out in less than a week of intense fighting. ### Hybrid Threats and Border Fortification General Pūdāns divided possible threats into two levels. He believes that a full-scale invasion in the near future is unrealistic, as Russia is occupied with the war in Ukraine. However, hybrid actions — sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation — could begin at any moment. «We live with the assumption that aggression in some form could happen as early as tonight», — emphasized the Latvian General. In response to these threats, Latvia has already begun active work on strengthening its borders. Along the entire line of contact with Russia, anti-tank barriers («dragon's teeth») are being installed and anti-tank ditches are being dug. The barriers are placed in three rows with a total width of about 10 meters, with each structural element weighing 1.5 tons. ### Economic Pressure Parallel to military preparations, Riga plans to tighten economic measures. The newly appointed Prime Minister of Latvia, Andris Kučinskis, declared the intention to completely sever trade relations with Russia. At the same time, he acknowledged that certain industries, in particular pharmaceuticals, would require exemptions from this rule due to the critical importance of supplies.