---
title: "Winter in Ukraine to be 1–2 degrees warmer than normal with no heavy snow promised: UHMI outlook"
description: "UHMI climatology head Vira Balabukh forecasted a winter in Ukraine 1–2 degrees warmer than normal with 20–40% excess precipitation, though stable snow cover is not expected due to the prevalence of warm Atlantic air masses."
date: 2026-10-31T07:39:59.285Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/winter-in-ukraine-warmer-than-normal-uhmi-forecast
tags: [ukraine-weather, winter-forecast, climate-change, meteorology, ugmi]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Winter in Ukraine to be 1–2 degrees warmer than normal with no heavy snow promised: UHMI outlook

![Woman in winter clothing carefully walks on an icy snow-covered sidewalk in the city](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/31/zima-v-ukraine-teplee-normy-prognoz-ugmi-2026/zima-v-ukraine-teplee-normy-prognoz-ugmi-2026-1.webp)

## Key Points

- Winter 2026/2027 in Ukraine is expected to be 1–2 degrees warmer than the climate norm for all winter months
- Precipitation will exceed the norm by 20–40%, but mostly in the form of rain and sleet
- Stable snow cover is unlikely due to temperatures staying above zero
- Hazardous phenomena: black ice, freezing rain, wet snow accumulation during temperature fluctuations near zero
- Warmest winter temperatures in the south and Transcarpathia (0…+2 °C), coldest in the northeast and Carpathian highlands (−3…−4 °C)

Vira Balabukh, Head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, presented an overview of the upcoming winter's climate profile in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. According to her data, winter in Ukraine is expected to be one to two degrees warmer than the climate norm this year, with this shift characteristic of all winter months. Meanwhile, precipitation levels may exceed long-term averages by 20–40%, though the structure of this precipitation will be determined by the dominance of warm Atlantic air masses. As the expert emphasizes, a quantitative increase in precipitation does not equate to abundant snow: a significant portion of the moisture will fall as rain or sleet, substantially altering the nature of the winter season for most regions of the country.

### Snow cover: why lasting snow is unlikely

Balabukh's key conclusion is that the formation of stable snow cover is unlikely in a winter where air temperatures stay above zero. Even with a significant total amount of precipitation, snow will melt quickly without forming a durable and dense layer. This means that traditional winter landscapes with deep snow in central and southern regions of Ukraine are unlikely this season. Carpathian meteorologists, in particular Oleh Basarab, also reassured Ukrainians in a recent comment, stating that a harsh winter should not be expected this year.

### Dangerous weather phenomena: black ice and freezing rain

Despite the generally warm background, temperature fluctuations near the zero mark will create the most dangerous weather conditions. Balabukh points out a high probability of black ice, wet snow accumulation on power lines and trees, and freezing rain. Regions where air temperatures frequently switch between negative and positive values require special attention: under such conditions, roads, sidewalks, and infrastructure are at maximum risk. For residents of large cities, this means exercising increased caution while moving around and preparing vehicles for potential icing even during periods when the thermometer reads a slight plus.

### Regional differences: from zero to minus four

The winter temperature background will vary across the country. The highest average winter temperatures are expected in southern Ukraine, Transcarpathia, as well as Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, where the average winter air temperature may range from zero to plus two degrees. Conversely, the coolest conditions will persist in the northeast of the country and the Carpathian highlands, where the average winter temperature may drop to minus three or four degrees and below. Thus, the spread of average temperatures between extreme regions will be about five to six degrees, which is typical for Ukraine, but shifted towards warming across the entire range.

### Long-term context: where the climate is heading

The forecast for this winter fits into a broader climate trend. According to experts, 2025 entered the top three hottest years on record, driven by increased emissions from fossil fuel combustion and global warming. The RCP8.5 climate scenario suggests that over thirty years, the average annual temperature in Kharkiv Oblast could approach values currently typical of Crimea. This underlines that warm winters with abundant rain instead of snow are becoming not an exception, but rather the new normative regime for the Ukrainian climate, to which infrastructure and the population will be forced to adapt in the coming decades.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Будет ли в этом году снежная зима в Украине: климатолог дала прогноз](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chi-bude-tsogorich-snizhna-zima-ukrayini-1793351546.html) - Primary source: interview with V. Balabukh featuring detailed figures on precipitation, regional temperatures, and hazardous phenomena
- ["Есть надежда": метеорологи Карпат рассказали, стоит ли ожидать холодной зимы в Украине](https://www.obozrevatel.com/section-novosti-obschestvo/news-ye-nadiya-meteorolohy-karpat-rozpovily-chy-varto-ochikuvaty-na-kholodnu-zymu-v-ukrayini-16-10-2026.html) - O. Basarab's commentary confirms the overall warm nature of the winter, with no discrepancies with UHMI data

## FAQ

### Will Ukraine have a snowy winter this year?

According to Vira Balabukh, Head of Climatology at UHMI, stable snow cover is unlikely. Although precipitation will be 20–40% above normal, due to the predominance of warm Atlantic masses, it will fall mostly as rain or sleet, while air temperatures will remain above zero.

### How warm is the winter of 2026/2027 expected to be?

Winter is expected to be one to two degrees warmer than the climate norm for all winter months. In the south, Transcarpathia, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, the average winter temperature may be 0…+2 °C, while in the northeast and Carpathian highlands it will be minus 3–4 °C and below.

### What dangerous weather phenomena are possible in winter?

Temperature fluctuations near zero can cause black ice, wet snow accumulation on power lines and trees, and freezing rain. This is especially true for regions where temperatures will frequently shift from negative to positive.

### Is this forecast related to global warming?

Yes. Experts note that 2025 entered the top three hottest years on record. The RCP8.5 climate scenario suggests further increases in average temperatures, and warm winters with rain instead of snow are becoming the new normal for Ukraine's climate.