---
title: "Trust in Zelensky Rises from 43% to 57% After \"Diesel Deal\": KIIS Poll Results"
description: "KIIS recorded an increase in trust in Zelensky from 43% to 57% between October 8 and 16 amid US pressure. Sociologists attribute this dynamic to the \"rally 'round the flag\" effect. The overall balance of trust is +13%."
date: 2026-10-20T09:59:02.365Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/zelensky-trust-rating-rises-diesel-deal-kiis-poll
tags: [ukraine, zelensky, poll, kmiis, public-opinion, us-pressure, rally-around-the-flag]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Trust in Zelensky Rises from 43% to 57% After "Diesel Deal": KIIS Poll Results

![President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky sits at a table and talks during a working meeting](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/20/reyting-zelenskogo-vyros-posle-dizelnogo-soglasheniya-opros-kmis/reyting-zelenskogo-vyros-posle-dizelnogo-soglasheniya-opros-kmis-1.webp)

## Key Points

- Trust in Zelensky in the KIIS poll rose from 43% (Oct 8–9) to 57% (Oct 10–16) amid US pressure and the "diesel deal"
- The overall balance of trust stands at +13% (54% trust, 41% distrust); over the past month, the level has remained virtually unchanged
- Sociologists attribute the rise to the "rally 'round the flag" effect, while acknowledging a partial influence from methodological differences between periods
- 61% of respondents consider exchanging Donbas for US and European security guarantees unacceptable

The Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has published the results of a telephone survey conducted from October 8 to 16, 2026, which record a noticeable increase in Ukrainians' trust in President Volodymyr Zelensky against the backdrop of pressure from the US and the so-called "diesel deal." In the first two days of data collection, October 8–9, 43% of respondents trusted the president, while 52% expressed distrust. In the subsequent period, October 10–16, the figures shifted: trust reached 57%, and distrust fell to 39%. Sociologists attribute this dynamic to the "rally 'round the flag" effect—a steady sociological phenomenon where external pressure strengthens support for the national leader.

### Methodology and Two Data Collection Periods

The survey was conducted by phone across all regions under the control of the Ukrainian authorities among 1,031 adult respondents. The total sampling error does not exceed 4%. At the same time, the two data collection periods covered different numbers of participants: October 8–9 included 274 people (7.7% margin of error), and October 10–16 included 757 people (4.6% margin of error). KIIS notes that in previous polls, trust in the president during the first days of collection was also slightly lower than in subsequent days, but previously the differences between periods were significantly smaller. Residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities, as well as citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022, did not participate in the survey. The respondents include internally displaced persons from occupied territories. When asked, respondents were read four response options—ranging from "completely distrust" to "completely trust"—without specifying that the question referred to the president.

### "Rally 'Round the Flag": Sociological Explanation of the Dynamics

The authors of the study conclude that the recorded jump in trust is most likely due to the "rally 'round the flag" effect following pressure from the US. This mechanism suggests that under conditions of external pressure, citizens tend to strengthen their support for their leader. KIIS emphasizes that the methodological factor—the difference in sample sizes between the two periods—partially explains the difference, but historically such inter-period fluctuations have been substantially less pronounced, allowing current dynamics to be interpreted as a reaction to specific political events rather than a methodological artifact.

### General Balance of Trust and Response Structure

According to the aggregate results of the poll, 54% of Ukrainians trust the president, while 41% do not. The balance of trust and distrust stands at +13 percentage points. Among the 54% who trust him, 22% chose "completely trust" and another 32% chose "tend to trust." In the group of those who do not trust him, 24% answered "completely distrust" and 17% "tend to distrust." KIIS points out that in late August and early September 2026, the figures were comparable, meaning that over the past month the overall level of trust has remained virtually unchanged, and the intra-poll fluctuation reflects a reaction to events in mid-October.

### Context: Attitude Toward Concessions and Comparative Ratings

In the same study, KIIS records the hardline stance of the majority of Ukrainians on the issue of territorial concessions: 61% of respondents called the transfer of Donbas in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe a categorically unacceptable condition. By comparison, according to a Rating Group poll, the highest level of trust among politicians and public figures in Ukraine was held by former AFU Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny at 64%. Zelensky was trusted by 53% of respondents in that study, while 40% distrusted him.

### Interpretation Limitations and Dynamics

Sociologists draw attention to a number of limitations: the survey does not cover residents of temporarily occupied territories or Ukrainians permanently residing abroad after February 2022, which narrows representativeness for a portion of the population. Furthermore, the difference in sample sizes between the two periods (274 versus 757) means that the statistical error of the first period is nearly twice as high as that of the second, requiring caution when directly comparing absolute values. Nevertheless, the totality of the data—including the historical dynamics of inter-period fluctuations and the overall balance of +13%—allows KIIS to qualify the recorded growth as a probable reaction to external pressure rather than a methodological artifact.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Рейтинг Зеленского вырос после "дизельного соглашения" между США и РФ, - опрос](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/reyting-zelenskogo-zris-pislya-dizelnoyi-1792489881.html) - Primary source. Trust figures (43%→57%, overall 54%), methodology (1031 respondents, phone survey, two periods), KIIS explanation — all data taken from the KIIS press release, retold by RBC-Ukraine. Internally consistent.
- [«Рейтинг Зеленского – 4%»: Трамп призвал провести выборы в Украине](https://www.rfi.fr/ru/%D0%B2-%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B5/20250219-%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B3-%D0%B7%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE-%E2%80%93-4-%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%BF-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8B-%D0%B2-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5) - Historical context (February 2025). Trump's statement about a "4% rating" is not the result of a poll and does not contradict current KIIS 2026 data. Used as background context, does not affect the factual basis of the article.

## FAQ

### What exact figures of trust in Zelensky did the October 2026 KIIS poll show?

In the first two days of the poll (October 8–9), 43% of respondents trusted the president and 52% distrusted him. During the October 10–16 period, trust reached 57% and distrust fell to 39%. Overall, 54% trusted him, 41% distrusted him, yielding a balance of +13%.

### Why do sociologists link the rise in trust to the "diesel deal"?

KIIS explains the dynamics through the "rally 'round the flag" effect: under conditions of external pressure from the US, citizens are more likely to express support for their national leader. At the same time, the institute acknowledges that part of the difference may be methodological, since in past polls trust in the first days was also lower, but previously fluctuations were much smaller.

### How many people participated in the poll and what is the margin of error?

A total of 1,031 adult respondents, with a total margin of error of no more than 4%. In the first period (October 8–9), there were 274 people with a 7.7% margin of error; in the second period (October 10–16), there were 757 people with a 4.6% margin of error.

### How do Ukrainians feel about the idea of handing over Donbas in exchange for security guarantees?

According to the same KIIS poll, 61% of respondents called such a condition categorically unacceptable.

### Who, besides Zelensky, is included in the public figures' trust rating?

According to a Rating Group poll, former AFU Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny enjoyed the highest level of trust among politicians at 64%. In that study, 53% of respondents trusted Zelensky and 40% distrusted him.