---
title: "\"Zero Phase\": Russia Intercepts NATO Exercises in the Baltics, Warsaw Scrambles Fighters"
description: "Poland and ISW analysts stated that Russia has launched a \"Zero Phase\" campaign in the Baltics, actively monitoring NATO exercises. Warsaw scrambled fighters to intercept Russian Su-30SM2s from Kaliningrad. 🇵🇱✈️🇷🇺"
date: 2026-07-17T06:10:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/zero-phase-russia-intercepts-nato-exercises-in-the-baltics-warsaw-scrambles-fighters
tags: [poland, nato, russia, baltic-sea, isw]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# "Zero Phase": Russia Intercepts NATO Exercises in the Baltics, Warsaw Scrambles Fighters

![NATO soldiers in camouflage with weapons in front of tanks and military equipment during exercises in the Baltic](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/17/rossiya-perexvatila-ucheniya-nato-v-baltike-varshava-podnyala-istrebiteli/rossiya-perexvatila-ucheniya-nato-v-baltike-varshava-podnyala-istrebiteli-1.webp)

The situation in the Baltic region has intensified against the backdrop of large-scale military exercises by the North Atlantic Alliance. Polish authorities and Western analysts have concluded that Moscow has changed its tactics: instead of passive observation, Russia has begun actively monitoring NATO integration maneuvers, preparing for possible provocations.

This information came from Warsaw and was confirmed by a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Experts note that the actions of the Russian military may fall within the framework of a strategy dubbed "Zero Phase." According to analysts, the goal of this campaign is to create information and psychological conditions for future incidents against alliance countries.

### Interception over the Baltics

The situation has moved from observation to active action. Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz made an official statement regarding the interception of Russian combat aircraft. According to him, Polish fighters were scrambled to escort two Russian Su-30SM2s that took off from bases in the Kaliningrad region.

Swedish pilots also participated in the operation, escorting a Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea. Despite active maneuvers, Warsaw emphasizes that the enemy aircraft did not violate Polish airspace.

### The "Zero Phase" Strategy

American analysts from ISW continue to assess Moscow's actions as part of a long-term campaign. The term "Zero Phase" describes the period preceding an open conflict, during which an aggressor attempts to test the opponent's reaction and create precedents for future provocations.

Previously, NATO has responded to various challenges, including missile incidents that nearly derailed the summit in Ankara. Against the backdrop of these events, German politician Friedrich Merz named countries that, in his opinion, face a new aggression from Russia. At the same time, the alliance reacted to personnel changes in Kyiv, specifically the resignation of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.