A debate has erupted within the Ukrainian economic community regarding the potential revision of financial limits for individual entrepreneurs (FOPs) of the third group. The initiative to set a turnover "ceiling" at the level of 2 million hryvnias has sparked serious criticism from experts, who warn of the risk of uncontrolled growth of the shadow sector.
Risk of Lost Tax Revenues
Economic expert Oleg Ustenko, in an interview on the "Novyny.LIVE" channel, called the proposed limit of 2 million hryvnias insufficient for the real sector of the economy. In his opinion, the attempt to artificially limit the turnover of small businesses will lead to the exact opposite result: instead of filling the treasury, the state will face a reduction in tax revenues.
The specialist emphasizes that in countries with a high level of shadow economy (in Ukraine, it is about 30%), any sharp increase in the tax burden on small businesses provokes entrepreneurs to go beyond the control of fiscal authorities.
"If you increase the tax burden on subjects of entrepreneurial activity... you will simply increase this shadow sector. Instead of the expected increase in tax revenues, we will get the opposite effect — a decrease in tax revenues to the budget of Ukraine," Ustenko stated.
Scale of Consequences: 200,000 Businessmen
The analyst presented alarming statistics: the implementation of a strict limit of 2 million hryvnias could force about 200,000 FOPs to go underground. This is a colossal blow to the legal business, which becomes critically important in the conditions of war and the need to finance the security and defense sector.
Instead of the declared growth of budget revenues, which were planned to be directed to state needs, there is a risk of losing a significant layer of taxpayers. The expert is confident that the current scenario, discussed in the context of IMF requirements, poses a threat to economic stability.
Compromise Solution
As an alternative to a strict restriction, the option of setting a limit at the level of 4 million hryvnias instead of the current 5 million is being considered. According to the expert's calculations, even in this case, the shadow sector will show growth, but it will not be critical for the country's economic system.
Under the scenario with a limit of 4 million hryvnias, only a few thousand entrepreneurs will leave the legal field, which is significantly less than the projected 200,000 with a strict reduction to 2 million. This solution could become a compromise between the requirements of international partners and the real capabilities of small businesses.
At the time of publication, official comments from the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and representatives of the International Monetary Fund regarding the final parameters of the revision of limits for third-group FOPs have not been received.