Ahead of its public market debut scheduled for November 2026, AI startup Anthropic has faced a downward revision of its market expectations. According to Reuters, cited by 3DNews, recent meetings between company management and investors in preparation for the IPO produced an 'unfavorable effect': while previously the expected post-offering capitalization was estimated at approximately $2 trillion, some investors now lean toward a figure around $1.5 trillion. This is nearly a quarter lower than the previous level and will not allow Anthropic to surpass the record set by SpaceX in June 2026 at $1.8 trillion.
Slowing Revenue Growth Rates
The key reason for the valuation adjustment is the observed decline in revenue momentum during the third quarter. While the metric more than doubled from the first quarter to the second, reaching $11.6 billion, growth in the third quarter slowed to just 45%, with revenue coming in at $16.8 billion. For a company raising billions in capital, such growth rates are considered insufficient to justify previous valuation multiples, prompting investors to reassess the expected business value.
Large-Scale Infrastructure Plans
Downward pressure on the valuation is also intensified by capital expenditure prospects: over the next ten years, Anthropic intends to allocate at least $518 billion to developing its own computing infrastructure and leasing cloud capacity, and this is far from the only planned expense item. This exact combination of high current costs and slowing revenue creates a more cautious view among investors regarding future investment returns.
BB+ Credit Rating from KBRA
Concurrently, the Financial Times reports that Anthropic has received a BB+ credit rating from rating agency KBRA, which is just one notch below investment grade. For a startup with high spending volumes that remains technically unprofitable, this is considered a fairly good result. The rating was assigned in June 2026 on the eve of another funding round, within which it planned to raise $35 billion. If rating agencies' trust in the company continues to grow, Anthropic could achieve an investment-grade rating in the next stage, reducing lender caution.
Bonds, Broadcom, and Risk Caveats
The liability structure deserves special attention: by the end of June, Anthropic had no direct credit obligations of its own, as all of them were assumed by its partners. At the same time, the company may issue convertible bonds totaling $42 billion to pay for a deal with Broadcom for the lease of semiconductor components. Meanwhile, KBRA reportedly formulated the rating without accounting for a number of risk factors associated with Anthropic's operations, and larger agencies Moody's, S&P, and Fitch might prove less benevolent, leaving room for further revision of financing terms.
