Military observer Sergei Auslender, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine on the program «Do Not Interrupt!» with Vladimir Kurennoy, stated that a direct military clash between Israel and Iran is, in his estimation, already impossible to avoid, and its unfolding could take place immediately after the completion of the election cycle in the United States. The observer linked this forecast to the personal strategy of incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, according to him, views the confrontation with Tehran as the key task of his political biography.
Forecast: Clash with Tehran is «Inevitable»
Commenting on the security situation in the Middle East against the backdrop of internal political processes in Israel, Auslender expressed confidence that a diplomatic or deterrent resolution of contradictions with Iran has been exhausted. «War with Iran is inevitable, in my view, and it will happen,» he stated. According to his assessment, this is not a hypothetical scenario, but a process that is already gaining momentum and which, as he noted, cannot be reversed.
US Election Cycle as a Trigger
The observer tied the timeframe of a possible escalation to the political calendar of the United States. According to his assessment, the activation of the military process will take place immediately after the end of the US election cycle. Thus, following his logic, the conclusion of the American elections will serve as the window in which, in his opinion, internal restrictions on actions regarding Tehran may be lifted.
Strategic Goal: «To Collapse the Iranian Regime»
In Auslender's estimation, for Netanyahu, the confrontation with Iran is not a tactical but a strategic task, the solution of which, he says, is capable of removing a wide range of security risks for Israel. «Netanyahu currently considers his main task to finish off Iran. To collapse the Iranian regime, which will solve a mass of security problems,» the observer emphasized. He interprets this as an attempt to achieve not a temporary truce, but a long-term change in the balance of power in the Middle East.
Personal Motive: Making History at 77
An important motivator for the prime minister's actions, according to Auslender, is his age and political status. At 77, he says, Netanyahu is on the «home stretch» of his political biography, and his current term is effectively his last. «He's quite old already, actually. 77 years old is effectively his last term. Therefore, in his final term, he wants to go down in history as the victor over Iran,» the observer summarized, linking the drive for a major military solution to the desire to cement his name in history.
Thus, as presented by Sergei Auslender, the war with Iran represents both a geopolitical forecast and an explanation of the motives of Israel's current leader: according to him, Netanyahu sees in the defeat of the Iranian threat both the solution to national security tasks and the final stage of his political career. It is noted that these assessments are the expert opinion of the observer and are not confirmed by official statements from the parties.
