Every November, Ukrainian consumers eagerly anticipate Black Friday—a day traditionally accompanied by loud promotions and promises of discounts up to 50–70%. However, in 2026, experts believe sales may not be as generous as commonly thought. Financial analyst Andrii Shevchyshyn explained in a blitz-interview with RBC-Ukraine that in Ukrainian realities, Black Friday largely remains a marketing tool rather than a genuine sale, and current economic conditions make substantial discounts even less likely.
Marketing ploy or real savings?
The analyst notes that in global practice, Black Friday is indeed a period for clearing out old seasonal inventory: retailers refresh their assortments before the New Year and build up fresh warehouse stocks. In Ukraine, he says, the situation is «roughly 50-50», but in most cases, it is still a marketing ploy. Some companies, in his observation, try to raise prices by simply changing price tags, while others genuinely offer discounts. «Different retailers have different sales models,» Shevchyshyn emphasizes, adding that there is no single rule for all market participants.
Why 2026 could be an exception
The key factor limiting retailers' capabilities this year, according to the analyst, is the destruction of warehouse stocks. «If a company has lost a lot of goods in warehouses, it is unlikely to be able to offer big discounts,» Shevchyshyn says. He points out that if a business has lost 30% or even 100% of its goods in warehouses due to destruction, it needs to re-purchase, import, and sell products anew. Under such conditions, offering significant discounts becomes economically unfeasible. Additional constraining factors named by the analyst include exchange rate fluctuations and inflationary expectations, which narrow margins and limit room for discounts.
What to buy and what to avoid
According to Shevchyshyn, there is no distinct category of goods that should categorically not be purchased on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. Buying things that were planned in advance and for which funds were set aside is normal behavior. The only thing the analyst does not recommend is emotional purchases based on the «saw it, wanted it, bought it» principle. He emphasizes that amid declining purchasing power of the population caused by inflation and other economic factors, every expenditure must be deliberate. At the same time, the analyst lacks statistics suggesting that certain categories of goods are systematically overpriced before a sale: «These can be any goods.»
The «cooling-off period» rule and priorities
Shevchyshyn suggests buyers use the so-called cooling-off period: if an item catches your attention, you should pause for a few days and evaluate whether it is truly needed and whether it will be useful in a month or a year. The analyst provides a concrete example: if the choice is between a television and battery packs with an inverter to ensure uninterrupted power supply, it is wiser to invest in a backup power system. This example illustrates a general principle—under uncertainty, priority should be given to goods that ensure basic needs and safety rather than impulse purchases.
Practical advice for buyers
The traditional, yet most effective advice according to the analyst, is to buy only what was planned in advance. First, you need to allocate a specific amount and rely solely on it. Second, approach the choice with caution. If overpayment is unavoidable, it must be justified by better quality or a larger volume of goods. Every business, Shevchyshyn emphasizes, will independently decide how to conduct its marketing campaign and what to offer buyers, so there is no universal «smart shopping» strategy. The buyer is left to rely on their own planning and a sober assessment of real needs.
