According to Bloomberg estimates, at least 487 civilians have been killed within the internationally recognized territory of Russia as a result of Armed Forces of Ukraine strikes since the beginning of 2026. This is nearly twice as many as for the entirety of 2025, when 269 people died, according to the same data. Agency analysts attribute the sharp rise in fatalities to the conflict “penetrating deeper into Russian territory and becoming increasingly lethal for the country's citizens.”
Casualty Statistics: Nearly Double the 2025 Figure
The geographic distribution of fatalities shows a steady trend. In the incomplete year of 2026, 380 people were killed by strikes in Russia's frontline regions, while another 107 died in other federal subjects of the Russian Federation. For comparison, in 2025, 219 people died in border regions and 50 in other parts of the country. A year earlier, in 2024, 225 people died near the border and nine in other regions. In 2022 and 2023, casualties were recorded only in regions close to the front lines — 20 and 88 people, respectively, the agency notes.
Expanding Geography and Target Lists
Bloomberg identifies the key reason for the rising death toll as the increased range of strikes: Ukrainian drones and missiles, according to the agency, have begun striking targets up to 3,000 kilometers from the border, placing nearly half of Russian territory within range. Additionally, the AFU have expanded their list of targets—attacks have hit not only military and industrial facilities, but also marketplace warehouses and data centers, increasing the risk of damage to civilian infrastructure nodes deep inside the country.
Specific Incidents: Nizhnekamsk and Kotovsk
Specific attacks illustrate this new dynamic. For instance, on August 10, a strike on Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan killed 13 people, while another 78 sought medical attention. In July, an attack on Kotovsk in the Tambov region left seven dead and 25 injured. However, the agency emphasizes that the number of civilian deaths inside Russia remains significantly lower than the casualty toll from strikes on Ukraine: in September alone, at least 328 people died in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg's estimates.
Rhetoric and Information Control
According to Bloomberg's assessment, Russian authorities are seeking to limit the domestic political fallout from Ukrainian strikes: state media reports on the aftermath of major attacks are mostly brief, and television virtually avoids broadcasting footage from the scenes. Regional authorities, according to calculations by The Insider, have begun blocking the publication of photos and videos showing the aftermath of strikes, as well as information regarding strike locations and facility damage—such restrictions are in effect in at least 82 out of 89 Russian regions.
