Summer 2026 in Ukrainian supermarkets promises to be a time of sharp contrasts. While some product categories delight shoppers with price drops thanks to the new harvest, others are under pressure due to spring frosts and energy issues. RBC-Ukraine analysts have prepared a forecast that will help understand what to expect when building a shopping basket in the coming months.
Fruit shortage and the banana paradox
Spring frosts dealt a serious blow to orchards. Apricots, peaches, early cherries, and strawberries are at risk. Experts warn: there may simply not be enough domestic stone fruits, and their price will depend directly on imports. At the same time, an unexpected trend has taken hold on store shelves: imported bananas are displacing local apples from the Ukrainian diet. The reason is simple — bananas are harvested up to 30 times a year worldwide, while apples in Ukraine are harvested only once. As a result, the exotic fruit turned out to be almost twice as cheap as the domestic one.
Vegetables and meat: seasonal price drops
The basic borscht set is now 15–17% cheaper than a year ago. Potatoes have become cheaper by an average of 20%. Young potatoes, which started at a price of 45 UAH/kg, will begin to drop rapidly in price within a month and a half. The lowest prices for cucumbers and tomatoes are expected from the second half of June to August. However, a price crash will not occur: producers are forced to take into account expensive fuel and high energy costs. Eggs and meat also show a seasonal decrease in cost due to cheaper feed and competition with private farms.
Bread and energy: two scenarios
Bakery products are in a difficult situation. The constant use of generators during summer power outages significantly increases the cost of baking. According to the optimistic scenario, in the next 3–4 months, bread will become 5% more expensive (about 1–1.5 UAH per loaf). The pessimistic forecast provides for a price increase by autumn of up to 25%. The cost of a pack of butter in summer will remain at the level of 60 UAH, and a bottle of 2.5% milk — up to 50 UAH.
Groceries and fish: what is rising and what is falling
Sugar remains 10% cheaper than last year. However, sunflower oil is becoming more expensive due to the depletion of seed reserves, and buckwheat is rising in price due to packaging costs. The fish market shows mixed dynamics: sharp spikes are not expected. Haddock costs 189–199 UAH/kg, lightly salted herring — about 235 UAH/kg. At the same time, the price of chilled trout steak has dropped to 849 UAH/kg thanks to active fishing in Norway.
Fuel and the final basket
The cost of fuel at Ukrainian gas stations depends entirely on the world market. Due to the drop in oil prices below $100 per barrel, a significant decrease in the cost of diesel fuel is forecast in Ukraine as early as next week — from the current 85 UAH to a level below 80 UAH/liter. Gasoline prices will remain unchanged for now. By the end of May, the total cost of the Ukrainian food basket has already increased by 9.5% compared to last year.