A significant change in the price trend for basic food products is brewing in Ukraine. According to expert forecasts, Ukrainians will soon face a substantial increase in the cost of bread, which could range from 15 to 20%. The signal of the impending price hike came from People's Deputy Dmytro Solomchuk on the air of the "Novyny LIVE" TV channel.

Energy and grain: the main drivers of inflation

Solomchuk identified the key reasons pushing prices up. First and foremost, this is the sharp increase in the cost of energy carriers necessary for the operation of mills and bakeries, as well as the rising cost of wheat. The combination of these factors will inevitably lead to a price revision upwards on store shelves.

Poultry farming: the balance between exports and the domestic market

The situation in the meat production sector looks more complex and dependent on external circumstances. According to the parliamentarian, the industry is generally stable, but the price of chicken meat may fluctuate within a range of 15 hryvnias. The outcome of this issue is directly dictated by export logistics.

The scenarios for meat buyers look as follows:

  • Optimistic scenario: With stable demand abroad and no logistical problems, prices in the domestic market will be fixed or increase insignificantly.
  • Pessimistic scenario: If exports are blocked and the domestic market is oversaturated with products, the cost of meat may go down.

The dairy industry paradox: rising prices in stores and falling prices for farmers

The most alarming situation is developing in the dairy industry. Here, there is an imbalance that hits the producer but brings no benefit to the consumer. While retail prices for dairy products in chains are rising, the purchase price of raw materials from farmers is falling. A decrease in the cost of a liter of milk from 22 hryvnias to 16.5 hryvnias has been recorded.

Such dynamics puts the profitability of farms at risk, yet the end consumer still pays more. The gap between the raw material purchase price and the shelf price in the store raises questions about the fairness of margin distribution.

Fighting retail markups

To solve the problem, Dmytro Solomchuk insists on the accelerated adoption of a bill regulating the activities of retail chains. The deputy points out that the current supply chain from the farmer to the consumer is too long and costly.

According to him, marketing markups and retail margins can reach 50% of the product cost. Solomchuk considers this situation unacceptable and calls for shortening the product's path to the buyer to make prices more affordable. At the time of publication, no official comments had been received from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy or representatives of major retail chains regarding markup regulation.