July in Ukraine promises to be a month of divergent price dynamics. While the market as a whole strives for stability, individual product categories will react to seasonal factors and changes in the production economy. Consumers can expect cheaper seasonal vegetables, but also a possible increase in the price of bakery products.
Dairy basket: stability and promotions
A sharp jump in dairy prices is not expected in July. The market demonstrates relative balance, which is confirmed by data from the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine. The Executive Director of the association, Arsen Didur, notes that the procurement price for raw materials in many farms has approached the break-even point. Despite pressure from exchange and export factors, the situation remains manageable.
The key factor keeping retail prices at an accessible level is the active use of promotional offers by retail chains. Currently, about 70% of goods in the dairy segment are sold at a discount, and this practice will continue throughout the summer. Experts emphasize that the final cost is influenced not only by raw materials but also by logistics, packaging, and energy costs; however, in July, the combination of these factors will not lead to a shortage or a sharp increase in prices.
Bread: growth due to the wage fund
The situation in the bakery industry is different. In the near future, bread prices may rise by approximately 5%. As explained by Alexander Taranenko, the First Vice-President of the All-Ukrainian Bakers Association, the driver of the price change will be new requirements for wage levels within the framework of worker reservation rules.
Enterprises are obliged to increase the average salary, which directly affects the cost price. Since the wage fund accounts for more than 20% of total costs, even a slight increase in payments leads to a noticeable impact on the price of the final product. Experts note that other factors, such as fuel costs or summer heat, have a significantly smaller impact on bread price dynamics.
Vegetables and fruits: seasonal decline
The summer period is traditionally characterized by a decrease in vegetable and fruit prices. Denis Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, explains this by the increase in the supply of open-ground produce. In July-September, the market will be under the influence of a seasonal factor, temporarily lowering costs.
In the near future, the first batches of the new harvest are expected to appear, specifically watermelons, which will also expand the supply. However, experts warn: after the harvest is gathered and the transition to storage occurs, expenses increase, forming a new price cycle. Already in autumn, a price increase of 8–15% is possible, depending on the crop type.
The myth about fuel influence
Separately, specialists debunk the widespread misconception that food prices depend directly on the cost of gasoline. Sergei Kuyun, Director of the A-95 consulting group, notes that the fuel component in the cost structure of food products accounts for up to 5%. Therefore, even significant fluctuations in fuel prices do not lead to a proportional increase in the retail cost of food products.
