Global oil markets recorded their largest weekly gain since July amid a fresh escalation in hostilities between the United States and Iran. According to data available this week, the benchmark Brent crude crossed the $95-per-barrel mark, gaining roughly 7% over seven days. Since the start of 2026, the North Sea blend has risen by nearly 60%, while the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has topped $91 per barrel.
Escalation: From Bombing Campaign to Retaliatory Strikes
The sharp spike in crude prices came after a period of relative calm. The US bombing campaign, which began early in the week, prompted a response from Tehran, which struck US military bases in the region. According to Axios, the United States hit more than 100 targets in Iran, which, as one US official stated, was part of a new "tanker-for-tanker" policy aimed at weakening the threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz and Strikes on Third Countries
Iranian forces continue to attack civilian and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's key oil arteries. In addition, Tehran launched missiles at Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, expanding the geographic scope of the conflict and heightening concerns about the stability of supply. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump stated that reaching an agreement with Iran is no longer a priority for him, and that the current situation regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz, in his words, suits him better.
Contradictory Data
At the same time, sources show discrepancies both in the level of quotes and in price dynamics. A number of outlets (RBC, "Moskovsky Komsomolts," "Kommersant") record a rise: according to their data, Brent is trading in the range of $94 to $96 per barrel, with "Kommersant" noting that the breach of the $94 mark occurred for the first time since August 21. Meanwhile, Investing.com reports a decline in oil prices, while maintaining the thesis that Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to pose supply risks. Thus, the core narrative of escalation and shipping risks is confirmed by all sources, although the exact level and direction of price movement at the time of publication differ.
Diesel, European Stocks, and Retail Prices
Refined products, in particular diesel fuel, are showing an even sharper price increase due to the simultaneous impact of the Middle East conflict and Russia's war against Ukraine. This week, retail prices for fuel in the US jumped to their highest level since mid-2022, while energy stocks in Europe came in significantly below the usual seasonal norms, intensifying pressure on the market ahead of the heating season.
Analysts' Assessment
Priyanka Sachdeva, head of the analytics department at Singapore-based Phillip Nova Pte Ltd., noted that oil markets are reassessing their own vulnerability. In her words, the risk premium may shrink only temporarily, as long as the key security issue in the region remains unresolved, indicating that an elevated level of volatility will persist in the medium term.
