In an interview with RBK-Ukraine, the Head of the President's Office of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, shared his forecast regarding the timeline for ending the active phase of the conflict. According to him, the probability that hostilities will cease in 2026 is realistic.
Escalation as a path to de-escalation
Budanov noted that in the spring of this year, the pace of peace negotiations was quite high. However, the situation has now shifted towards escalation, which is obvious to all participants in the process. The expert emphasized the paradoxical logic of military conflicts: to exit the phase of intensification, it is often necessary to reach the peak of escalation.
The Head of the President's Office expressed confidence that after the phase of maximum tension, de-escalation and the resumption of dialogue will follow, provided the parties maintain an interest in settlement. Budanov believes that Russia, despite its current unwillingness to negotiate, will eventually become interested in dialogue itself.
The US election factor
During the conversation, the link between a possible "window of opportunity" for peace and the elections held in November in the United States was discussed. Budanov acknowledged that this is one of the significant factors, but not the most important one.
There is a widespread version according to which the Russian side understands the need to make a deal specifically with the current US President, Donald Trump, fearing that no beneficial agreements can be reached with his successor. Kyrylo Budanov agreed with this thesis but added an important nuance: Trump has at least two years of presidency left.
In the opinion of the Head of the President's Office, regardless of the election results in Congress, Trump will remain a key figure in American politics. Possible complications related to internal struggle should not critically affect his role in international affairs.
Successes on the battlefield as an argument
It was previously reported that Donald Trump changed his attitude towards Ukraine, which was facilitated by successful long-range strikes on Russian territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Trump strives to be on the side of the winner. The Head of State is confident that it is the sky that will determine the outcome of the war, and in this aspect, Ukraine maintains high competitiveness.
