The Government of Ukraine has approved a new budget declaration for 2027–2029. The document lays the groundwork for accelerating economic growth to 6.7% by 2029, gradually raising social standards, and outlines two development scenarios depending on the security situation. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko.
Two Scenarios: Optimistic and Conservative
The budget declaration is based on a baseline scenario that assumes an improvement in the security situation starting in 2027. At the same time, the government has provided for a separate resilience scenario in case of a prolonged active phase of hostilities. This approach allows for flexible adaptation of the budget to changing conditions while maintaining social stability and economic resilience.
Economic Forecasts: GDP Growth and Inflation Reduction
The government expects an acceleration in the growth of real GDP. According to forecasts, the average wage should rise from 35,010 hryvnias to 44,083 hryvnias. Inflation, in turn, is expected to slow down from 8.9% to 5.1%. These indicators indicate a gradual recovery of the economy and an improvement in living conditions for the population.
Social Guarantees: Wage Growth and Support for Vulnerable Groups
The minimum wage in 2027 will increase at a rate exceeding the level of inflation. The subsistence minimum will grow by the level of inflation plus 2 percentage points over all three years. The document also provides for the continuation of support for veterans and persons affected by armed aggression. Separate provisions are made for the return of forced migrants and the restoration of human capital.
Coordination with International Partners
The budget declaration has been coordinated with international partners and Ukraine's obligations under external financial support programs. This ensures financing stability and trust from foreign investors and creditors.
Historical Context: From Defense Priority to Social Growth
The previous budget declaration for 2025–2027 provided for maintaining the minimum wage at the level of 8,000 hryvnias without further increases—the priority remained spending on the defense and security sector. The new document marks a shift towards socio-economic development, reflecting a change in government priorities under conditions of relative stabilization of the situation.
Yesterday, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko presented the document to the Coalition Council in the presence of Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko. This became an important stage in the process of approving the budget strategy for the next three years.