Two Scenarios: Peace or Continued War
The Government of Ukraine has presented the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029. The document outlines two scenarios for development: the end of the war and its continuation. The presentation took place at the Coalition Council with the participation of Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and the entire cabinet. The head of the government initiated the meeting.
In the baseline scenario, assuming the end of hostilities, inflation in 2027 is projected to be 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year — 48.3 hryvnias. Even in the optimistic variant, the government plans for a gradual weakening of the national currency: the average annual rate will rise from 44.4 UAH in 2026 to 50.7 UAH in 2029. By the end of 2029, the dollar is forecast to cost 51.5 UAH.
Growth of Minimum Wage and Social Guarantees
The Ministry of Finance has defined the key priorities of the declaration: maintaining social support for citizens, raising standards, and preparing for the challenges of the country's recovery. It is planned to maintain the expenditures allocated in the 2026 budget — funding for screenings, school meals, teachers' wages, and demographic development measures.
An increase in the minimum wage is forecast. As of 2026, it stands at 8,647 hryvnias. Over three years, according to calculations, the 'minimum' will grow by almost 29% — to approximately 11,155 hryvnias. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirmed that the government is discussing a wage reform. A full reform will require about 320 billion hryvnias, but the first decisions could be made in the near future.
It is also planned to extend the 10,000 hryvnia supplement for rear-line military specialists next year.
Economy, Debt, and International Support
In the event of the end of active hostilities in 2026, the government expects an acceleration of economic growth. Nominal GDP is expected to grow from 10.1 trillion hryvnias in 2026 to almost 15 trillion hryvnias in 2029. Budget expenditures will peak in 2027, after which they will begin to decline.
Ukraine plans to increase borrowings. The growth of public debt by the end of 2026 is expected at 106.1% of GDP, and in 2027 — 113%. The need for international financing in 2027 amounts to 2 trillion 134.5 billion hryvnias. This refers to support from G7 countries, the EU, the World Bank, the UK, and the IMF, as well as an EU grant and a UK loan, the repayment of which will be carried out using frozen Russian assets.
New Challenges and Policy Adaptation
The government is ready to implement new state policies depending on the development of the situation in the security and economic spheres. The Budget Declaration becomes a tool for flexible management in conditions of uncertainty — whether it is peaceful recovery or the continuation of the war.