Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence have published a forecast stating that by 2030, China could match the US in its influence on the global artificial intelligence market and pull ahead in a number of key technological sectors. According to the researchers, Beijing will lead eight out of 17 strategically important AI-related areas, including the development of large language models (LLMs) — the technological foundation of modern intelligent systems. At the same time, American companies are projected to retain an advantage in the production of advanced chips and other hardware components for AI.
Leadership in Large Language Models and Lagging in Hardware
According to the study, China has every chance to become a global leader in large language models while maintaining competitiveness across all other strategically important technology sectors. Meanwhile, in segments critical to AI development — such as hardware manufacturing from chips to optical network components — Chinese companies still lag behind. However, analysts note that in a few years they will be able to mount serious competition to current leaders in these areas.
«Joint Technological Leadership»
«The US and China are moving toward joint technological leadership in AI, with neither side likely to achieve absolute supremacy,» Bloomberg Intelligence reports. According to analysts, American AI models may retain a slight edge at the technological frontier, while China's software optimization competencies create favorable conditions for deploying more cost-effective AI-based solutions.
Energy, Biotech, and Robotics
Beyond AI, China is projected to become the global leader in all three categories related to new energy, including electric vehicles and energy storage systems, as well as in the biopharmaceutical manufacturing sector. Beijing already leads in humanoid robot production and several shipbuilding directions, and its research and development spending has matched that of the United States. China is also expected to narrow the gap in semiconductor technologies, though it will not achieve complete self-sufficiency.
The Challenge of Monetizing Innovations
Progress in AI is hindered by the fact that Chinese companies, much like AI startups elsewhere, have not yet found effective ways to monetize their innovations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, they are still engaged in a survival race driving service prices down to the limit, and profitability will remain an elusive goal until companies transition to a more rational pricing approach.
Trade Barriers and Alternative Paths
Frictions in relations with the US, Europe, and other trading partners will continue to be a serious obstacle for the development of Chinese tech giants: access to lucrative markets may be blocked, and export restrictions could strip them of access to advanced components. Nevertheless, analysts believe these restrictions are more likely to shift the geography of China's industrial expansion than to stop it entirely. Concurrently, a number of observers note that Beijing is betting less on formal leadership in the race and more on a broad practical implementation path — integrating AI into the economy, which shapes its own trajectory of industrial development.
