The autumn season of 2026 on Ukraine's primary real estate market has been marked by a notable price revision. According to Marianna Bigunets, Commercial Director of Gazda, housing prices on the primary market may rise by at least 3–5% in September–October, while in fully completed or near-completion projects the increase will reach 7–10%. The expert emphasises that the current adjustment is only the first step: far more important for future prices will be the cost basis that developers build into new projects starting in late 2026 and completing in 2027–2028.
Cost Basis as the Main Driver of Growth
According to Gazda analysts, in just the first eight months of 2026 the cost of building one square metre in the western regions rose by approximately 10%. The key factors were strikes on warehouses and production facilities, the rising cost of logistics chains, and the forced replacement of Ukrainian building materials with more expensive imported alternatives. Developers are currently holding retail prices down thanks to existing stockpiles and their own margins; however, according to Bigunets, this buffer is being rapidly exhausted, which will inevitably push the market toward a further revision of the price per square metre.
The Buyer Is "Buying Certainty"
In autumn 2026, the structure of demand is undergoing a significant transformation. According to Bigunets, 60–70% of buyers are deliberately looking for housing with a high degree of completion or finished interiors. "In autumn, the buyer will increasingly be 'buying' certainty and safety. The closer a building is to completion and the clearer the move-in date, the lower the risks… That is why the market may rise unevenly: the greatest price dynamics will concentrate around completed and near-completion residential complexes," the director explains. A completed building already costs 20–30% more than apartments in buildings scheduled for handover at the end of 2026, and 50–60% more than 2027 projects.
Who Is Buying and Where Demand Is Shifting
More than half of the developer's clients are focused on relatively safe regions — Lviv, Uzhhorod, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lutsk and Ternopil — which can absorb up to a third of interregional demand. The main buyers of completed buildings are young families with children, accounting for around 40% of the segment. A further 30% are citizens aged 40–55 who have relocated from other regions or sold their previous property. Up to 10% of demand comes from parents solving the housing issue for their children aged 18–25.
Outlook for 2027: Safety, Workforce and Energy
For the coming year, the main pricing factors, according to Gazda, will be less about exchange-rate fluctuations and more about safety, a shortage of construction workers, labour costs, logistics and energy risks. Developers' 2027 plans build in a 15–20% rise in cost basis at an assumed dollar rate of 47–48 hryvnias. Thus, even if the current retail price dynamics are maintained, the real burden on the buyer will be determined less by the "sticker" on the display than by the cost basis embedded in the project.
Context: Record Growth in the Second Quarter
Recall that in the second quarter of 2026 the year-on-year growth in apartment prices on the primary market reached a five-year high of 20.5%. The main drivers of that jump were rising costs of building materials, logistics services and workers' wages. In this context, the autumn adjustment of 3–5% looks like a logical continuation of the trend, although the asymmetry between completed and under-construction projects is likely to widen throughout 2027.
