Ilya Pavlenko, former Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and Major General, has voiced a worrying forecast regarding the future of the peninsula. In his opinion, the retention of Crimea as a Russian military staging ground will not be the end of the conflict, but will only ensure a pause before the next stage of hostilities.

The General shared his thoughts during the V International Forum of the Expert Network of the Crimean Platform. He emphasized that over the past year, the situation around the peninsula has undergone fundamental changes. If Crimea was previously perceived as a safe rear area, today it has turned into a zone of logistical tension and constant risk for the occupying forces.

Crimea is losing military value

According to Pavlenko, Ukrainian forces have moved to systematically limit the enemy's ability to use the peninsula as a base. The entire infrastructure for the management and support of Russian troops is under heavy pressure: from land routes and ports to air defense and radar systems.

As a result, Moscow is forced to redirect significant resources to maintain the defense of the region, instead of using them for offensive operations. This leads to the gradual loss of Crimea as a strategically valuable asset.

"If the war ends, but Crimea remains a Russian military staging ground, then this will not be the end of the war — this will be a pause before its next stage. The Kremlin has two-hundred-year-old imperial ambitions, and Crimea is the golden key to achieving them," the General stated.

Strategic significance of pressure

Pavlenko noted that pressure on Crimea has not only purely military, but also deep political significance. It allows Ukraine to:

  • Strengthen its negotiating positions on the international arena;
  • Gain new arguments for attracting support from partners;
  • Return the issue of the peninsula to the global agenda as a key security factor in the Black Sea region.

Threat of information warfare

Despite successes, the General warned of the need to prepare for large-scale Russian information operations in the event of de-occupation. According to his forecast, Moscow will launch an anti-Ukrainian campaign, accusing Kyiv of destabilizing the situation.

"Russia will organize an anti-Ukrainian campaign. They will say: 'Look what Ukraine is doing.' That is why expert networks must already introduce this into the international discussion — not only to reassure partners, but also to say that we need to constructively prepare for this," Pavlenko added.