On August 19, 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced the official exchange rates for the following day, August 20. The major global currencies are showing divergent trends: the US dollar showed a slight decline, while the euro continued to rise. The official exchange rate for the dollar was set at 44.70 hryvnias, which is 7 kopecks lower than the previous day's figure. At the same time, the cost of the euro increased by 3 kopecks, reaching 51.86 hryvnias per unit of currency.
Mechanics of the managed float regime
The National Bank explains the current situation by stating that the strategic goal remains the transition to a floating exchange rate regime; however, under current conditions, the regulator is forced to operate in a mode of "managed flexibility." This means that the NBU actively participates in rate formation, smoothing out sharp fluctuations and preventing excessive volatility. Thanks to the regulator's interventions, the hryvnia can either strengthen or weaken depending on the current market conditions, but within controlled parameters.
Structural currency shortage against the backdrop of war
The key factor influencing exchange rate policy remains the full-scale war. NBU experts point out that the conflict has led to a restriction of Ukraine's export capabilities and a decrease in the inflow of foreign investment. As a result, a structural shortage of foreign currency persists in the domestic currency market. This is why, according to the regulator, returning to a regime where the rate is formed solely by market forces is premature at this time and carries risks of economic destabilization.
Contradictory data in the media space
Although official NBU data records a decrease in the dollar rate by 7 kopecks, there is polarization of headlines in the media space. While RBK-Ukraine and 24tv.ua correctly report on the decline or strengthening of the hryvnia, some other publications (for example, Glavred) use a more emotional presentation, stating that the "dollar has collapsed" and the euro has "soared rapidly." In fact, a change of 7 kopecks is not a "collapse," but such rhetoric reflects the psychological perception of rate changes by the population, which is expecting more stable figures.
Forecasts and the role of interventions
The NBU continues to cover the currency shortage in the market with its own interventions, using accumulated reserves. This allows the regulator to maintain liquidity and ensure the uninterrupted operation of payment systems. In conditions where the inflow of currency from exports and partner aid is limited, the role of the NBU as the main supplier of currency to the market becomes critically important. It is expected that the managed float regime will be maintained until foreign trade flows and investment activity stabilize.
