The question that concerns millions of Ukrainians and their families has received an unexpected and harsh answer from the command. Demobilization of Ukrainian military personnel may not begin immediately after silence falls on the front lines. According to the leadership of the National Guard, the army will need a full year to adapt to peacetime.
"We Will Learn Not to Fight"
Alexander Pivnenko, Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, stated the command's position regarding the post-war period in an interview with LIGA. The General declared that immediately after the end of hostilities, a so-called "stabilization period" will begin, lasting about a year. This time will be needed for reorganization and bringing the armed forces into order.
"We will learn not to fight. Only then, a year after hostilities cease, is demobilization possible. I think this is objective," Pivnenko explained. According to him, a sharp transition from war to peace without an adaptation period could be a destabilizing factor for both the army and the country.
Frontline Reality and Personnel Shortages
Speaking about the current situation, the Commander admitted that the load on personnel remains extremely high. There are situations where soldiers are forced to stay on frontline positions continuously for up to six months. This calls into question the physical and psychological endurance of military personnel, but, in the General's opinion, it is precisely this experience that requires subsequent long-term adaptation.
Evaluating current recruitment mechanisms, Pivnenko noted that voluntary recruitment would be the most effective tool. However, at the moment, no more than 30% of the total number of recruits come through this channel. The remaining 70% join the army through mandatory mobilization.
TCM Crisis and Personnel Issues
The Commander also touched upon the acute topic of the work of Territorial Recruitment and Mobilization Centers (TCM). He emphasized that the approaches to the work of these structures require significant changes. At the same time, Pivnenko expressed doubt about the expediency of involving people with real combat experience in the work of TCMs. In his opinion, other competencies are needed for this work, not frontline service.
Political Context and Legislation
General Pivnenko's words fit into the broader context of reforming the Ukrainian army. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously reported that the authorities are preparing a large-scale reform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and starting from 2026, the possibility of demobilization may appear for certain categories of military personnel.
However, military experts and ombudsmen warn of difficulties. Military Ombudsman Olga Reshetilova emphasized that without strengthening mobilization activities, one should not expect to determine clear terms of service. In 2024, the Verkhovna Rada already considered a draft law on reforming mobilization, which provided for the right to demobilization for those who had served continuously for 36 months. However, before the second reading, this provision was removed, and a separate law was never adopted.