The upward trend in diesel and autogas prices continues on the Ukrainian fuel market. As of October 16, 2026, wholesale diesel prices have already exceeded 100 hryvnias per liter, while the cost of autogas, according to market participants, may stabilize at around 50 hryvnias. Meanwhile, gasoline shows no signs of increasing in price. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A95 consulting group, discussed what drivers should expect in the coming weeks in a blitz interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Why diesel and gas are getting more expensive
The expert named the sharp rise in fuel prices on global markets as the primary reason for the increase in autogas prices. "Global gas prices have risen sharply. Accordingly, new purchases at higher prices have already arrived in Ukraine and started affecting fuel costs," Kuyun explained. According to him, this dynamic was evident several weeks ago, so the increase was projected in advance. The situation with diesel, in the expert's assessment, is not improving: deals regarding Russian and American diesel "have yielded nothing," and prices remain high due to a lack of excess fuel volumes on the market. Supply is characterized as tense, and the market itself as balanced but with a certain resource deficit, which supports high prices.
Wholesale and retail prices: Gap and alignment
A key feature of the current situation is that the purchasing cost of diesel already exceeds its retail price at gas stations. According to Kuyun, the wholesale price on October 16 is 103–105 hryvnias per liter, while at filling stations fuel is sold for approximately 100 hryvnias. "That means the purchasing cost is higher than the retail price. I think prices will gradually align," the expert noted. He also pointed to the consistent nature of the increase: over the past few days, several companies one after another raised prices above 100 hryvnias per liter, indicating continued gradual growth.
Gasoline remains stable
Unlike diesel and gas, the gasoline market, according to the expert, is in a normal situation: supplies are available, and profitability remains at an appropriate level. "Therefore, I think gasoline prices will be stable," Kuyun stated, adding that the rise in diesel and autogas prices will not drag gasoline prices up with it.
Forecast for late October and November
According to the A95 director's forecast, diesel fuel may rise by a few more hryvnias, autogas may increase to approximately 49–50 hryvnias per liter, while gasoline prices will remain unchanged. Thus, the most likely scenario for the coming weeks is a further moderate increase in diesel and gas prices while gasoline remains stable, which drivers should consider when planning fuel expenses.
