The mobile communications market in Russia has faced an unprecedented transformation. While the industry demonstrated steady growth in 2025, the first half of 2026 was marked by a sharp decline in traffic consumption. The cause was regular access restrictions, which radically changed user habits and the economics of operators.

2025 Growth: Figures Before the Crash

According to the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK) at HSE University, 2025 was a period of saturation. There were 171.8 million subscribers connected to mobile internet. The average user consumed 24 GB of traffic monthly, totaling 288 GB annually. Private individuals, making up 92.7% of the subscriber base, generated the overwhelming majority of traffic — 93.6%, with the total volume reaching 46.1 EB.

The dynamics in the fixed-line segment are also interesting. In 2025, the growth in fixed-line internet subscribers was twice as high as in mobile communications. This may indicate that users began seeking alternatives to mobile channels or redistributing load even before the start of large-scale restrictions.

The Restriction Effect: Regional Specifics of the Decline

The situation changed radically in the first half of 2026. Traffic consumption mechanisms were disrupted due to regular outages. The operator SberMobile recorded a total decrease in mobile traffic of 22%. However, the picture in the regions looks even more dramatic:

  • In St. Petersburg, traffic dropped by 18%.
  • In the Moscow region, the decline was 30%.
  • In Voronezh, Ivanovo, and Kursk regions, as well as the Krasnodar Krai, the drop reached critical levels of 40%.

Since September 2025, despite the restrictions, access to resources on the "white lists" of the Ministry of Digital Development has been maintained. This list includes domestic social networks (VK, Odnoklassniki), the Max messenger, Mail.ru and Yandex.Zen platforms, marketplaces Ozon and Wildberries, as well as Rutube, Avito, Gosuslugi services, and government agency websites.

Industry Disagreements and Forecasts

Not all market players are recording the same dynamics. T2 and Beeline reported that mobile traffic grew in 2025 compared to the previous year. The virtual operator T-Mobile noted that since late 2025, the traffic decline was insignificant. Previously, in 2024, the average per subscriber was 17 GB per month.

Analysts at Telecom Daily calculated that in 2025, traffic consumption grew by 12.5%, reaching 15 GB per month per subscriber. Other experts also confirm growth of 1–2 GB per month. Beeline recorded average consumption at 22 GB in 2024.

However, the overall trend for 2026 remains negative. Experts forecast that by the end of the year, mobile traffic will decrease by 5% to 10%. The market is adapting to new conditions where access to the global network is no longer a guarantee, but a privilege dependent on the current political and economic conjuncture.