The Ukrainian currency market has once again demonstrated its volatility. After a brief rise in exchange rates, the dollar and euro have shifted to a decline. Against the backdrop of continued high uncertainty, the National Bank has set new official rates, which again confirm the regulator's current strategy.
Rate Adjustment at the End of the Week
On Friday, June 12, the National Bank of Ukraine fixed the official exchange rate of the US dollar at 44.92 hryvnias. Compared to the previous working day, the American currency dropped by 5 kopecks. A similar trend is observed with the European currency: the official exchange rate of the euro was 51.83 hryvnias, which is 6 kopecks less than the previous day's figure.
Thus, after several days of growth, both major currencies have corrected downwards. However, experts note that they remain near the high levels recorded in recent weeks.
Strategy of 'Managed Flexibility'
The behavior of the currency market is explained not only by market factors but also by the clear course of the regulator. Taras Kozak, founder and president of the investment group 'UNIVER', stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that the National Bank has been adhering to a policy of 'managed flexibility' and 'constructive uncertainty' for several years.
The main goal of this strategy is to make the market less predictable for speculators. 'The National Bank has been adhering to a policy of managed flexibility and constructive uncertainty for three years. The goal of such a strategy is not to give the market the opportunity to predict the rate,' the expert emphasized.
Protection Against Speculators
According to Kozak, within the framework of this policy, there are sometimes situations where demand in the interbank market decreases, but the dollar still becomes more expensive. Opposite scenarios are also possible. Such actions are part of the NBU's plan to prevent market participants from profiting from predictable exchange rate fluctuations.
Despite the current slight decline in official rates, the situation remains dependent on the decisions of the National Bank, the volume of international aid, and the general economic conjuncture. Experts agree that the regulator's policy is currently aimed at preventing sharp spikes, so significant fluctuations in the dollar or euro in the near future seem unlikely.