The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on Monday, July 13, recorded a slight decrease in the official exchange rate of major foreign currencies. The US dollar fell by 2 kopecks, while the euro dropped by 1 kopeck. These changes indicate a return to stability following a brief price surge at the end of last week.
Exchange Rate Dynamics on July 13
The official exchange rate for the US dollar was set at 44.49 hryvnias. For comparison, on Friday, July 10, the cost of the American currency was 44.51 hryvnias. Thus, over the weekend and the start of the new week, the dollar lost 0.02 hryvnias in value.
The European currency also demonstrated a slight decline. The euro rate on July 13 was 50.86 hryvnias, which is 1 kopeck less than Friday's figure (50.87 UAH). Experts note that such minimal fluctuations indicate relative stability in the official currency market.
Fuel Factor as the Main Risk
Despite current stability, experts warn of potential threats to the hryvnia's exchange rate. One of the key factors capable of influencing the situation in the near future remains the fuel market.
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, emphasized in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that risks to the national currency go beyond the purely currency sphere. According to him, the situation with fuel directly affects import demand, logistics, transportation costs, and inflation expectations among the population.
The logic of the impact is simple: if global oil prices begin to rise or supply problems arise, the importers' need for currency to purchase fuel will increase. This could create additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate.
Situation in the Fuel Market
Nevertheless, there are currently no grounds for panic regarding a systemic fuel shortage. Ukraine has already established stable import routes, and the fuel market, having gained experience from 2022, has become more adaptable to external shocks.
However, experts do not rule out the possibility of temporary disruptions. Local problems with the operation of gas stations, logistical difficulties, or infrastructure damage could temporarily affect both fuel prices and consumer behavior, which, in turn, will be reflected in the currency market.
