The National Bank of Ukraine decided on July 1 to lower the official exchange rate of major foreign currencies. The US dollar and the euro became cheaper compared to the previous banking day, marking a notable event for the country's financial market.

New NBU Exchange Rates

The regulator set the official exchange rate of the US dollar at 44.79 hryvnias. This is 5 kopecks lower than the rate recorded on June 30 (44.84 hryvnias). The decline in the euro was more significant: its value reached 51.03 hryvnias, which is 13 kopecks less than the previous value of 51.16 hryvnias.

Thus, at the beginning of July, both major currencies showed a decline, with the European currency losing more value than the American one.

Expert Forecast: No Sharp Spikes Until the End of Summer

Despite current volatility, experts do not predict sharp changes in the near future. Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of "Globus Bank," noted that it is premature to talk about rapid exchange rate spikes at this time.

According to the specialist, the state of the foreign exchange market remains extremely sensitive to several key factors:

  • The situation on the front;
  • Volumes of fuel and energy equipment imports;
  • Regularity of international financial aid inflows.

At the same time, the NBU continues to operate in a mode of managed flexibility, which helps to smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations.

Should We Expect the Dollar to Exceed 45 Hryvnias?

Mamedov explained that the dollar may periodically approach the 45-hryvnia mark or even situationally cross it. However, according to the expert, it is not the number itself that matters, but the nature of the changes. A gradual increase of several tens of kopecks is not a shock to the economy, unlike sharp jumps of several hryvnias.

Analysts at "Globus Bank" assess the prospects until the end of summer as follows: in the absence of new large-scale military or external shocks, the American currency is unlikely to exceed the 45.5-hryvnia mark. The market expects the exchange rate to remain within the forecasted range without sharp "roller coasters".