The National Bank of Ukraine adjusted the official exchange rates for Monday, June 8. After several days of growth, the dollar and euro moved into correction, showing a slight decrease in value against the hryvnia.
Official NBU Data
According to updated data from the regulator, the exchange rate for the American currency was 44.35 hryvnias per dollar. Compared to the figure on June 5, the dollar became cheaper by 2 kopecks. The euro also demonstrated a decline: if the rate was previously 51.66 hryvnias, it is now set at 51.63 hryvnias per euro. The difference was 3 kopecks.
Experts note that the current dynamics are a reaction to global trends. Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, in a comment for RBC-Ukraine, explained that the exchange rate of the national currency now depends not only on internal factors but also on the situation in the global foreign exchange market. In particular, the NBU is increasingly taking into account the ratio of the euro to the dollar. The strengthening of the dollar relative to the euro on international platforms directly affects its rate against the hryvnia.
Forecasts for the Near Future
Analysts believe that Ukrainians should monitor not only the dollar but also the euro, as a significant part of foreign trade, international aid, and public debt is linked precisely to the European currency.
As for the prospects for exchange rate changes, Shevchyshyn called the scenario of reaching the mark of 44.50 hryvnias per dollar quite realistic. According to him, such a move is possible in the event of further strengthening of the dollar in the global market.
At the same time, overcoming the psychological mark of 45 hryvnias per dollar at the moment looks unlikely. For such a serious move, powerful negative factors are necessary, for example, a significant reduction in international support for Ukraine or other strong external shocks.
Seasonal Factors
Historical statistics also speak in favor of stabilization. June traditionally remains one of the calmest months for the hryvnia. Over the last few decades, the Ukrainian currency during this period has strengthened more often than weakened, and sharp devaluation movements are uncharacteristic for summer.