Amid geopolitical tensions, Ukraine's currency market shows an interesting asymmetry: the US dollar maintains the status quo, while the euro steadily approaches the psychologically significant mark of 52 hryvnias. On Tuesday, June 16, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to keep the official US dollar rate unchanged, fixing it at 44.81 hryvnias.

However, the European currency did not stop. The official euro rate rose by 18 kopecks, reaching 52.03 hryvnias. This dynamic underscores that, despite the overall stability of the hryvnia, external factors continue to exert pressure on specific market segments.

Expert Forecasts: Where are the Volatility Limits?

Specialists assess the current situation as manageable but requiring close attention. Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, outlined key benchmarks for the near future in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

In his opinion, the dollar will be held within a narrow corridor:

  • On the interbank market: from 44.4 to 45.1 hryvnias.
  • On the cash market: from 44.3 to 45 hryvnias.

The balance of supply and demand remains tight. Demand for currency exceeds supply by approximately 10–15%. To maintain equilibrium and prevent sharp spikes, the National Bank, according to the expert's estimates, needs to conduct currency interventions totaling between 850 and 900 million dollars per week.

"This volume is indicative: the market is not in perfect balance, but it does not show signs of being uncontrollable," Lesovoy noted.

Why is the Euro More Volatile than the Dollar?

Unlike the dollar, which demonstrates relative stability, the euro remains more sensitive to external shocks. Experts link this to the current ratio of currencies in global markets, which is expected to range from 1.15 to 1.18 dollars per euro. Under such a scenario, the euro rate in Ukraine could fluctuate between 51 and 52.5 hryvnias.

The key driver of the European currency's instability remains the situation in the Middle East. The escalation of conflict in the region directly affects oil prices, investor sentiment, and the dynamics of major world currencies. This is why, in the coming days, the euro may maintain elevated volatility, even if the Ukrainian market as a whole remains stable.